AUKUS核潜艇合作如何冲击国际核不扩散规范体系?

How Does the AUKUS Nuclear Submarine Cooperation Change the International Nuclear Non-proliferation Norms?

核潜艇合作是美英澳三边安全伙伴关系(AUKUS)的核心内容。关于这一核潜艇合作项目是否有悖国际核不扩散规范体系,国际社会存在尖锐的争论。既有研究主要探讨三边安全伙伴关系核潜艇合作与国际核不扩散规范的合规问题,但忽视了其对正在成长中的国际规范的冲击。从规范演化的角度看,违反规范的国家影响力越大,对既有规范的打击越沉重,规范退化的可能性越大。规范的正式程度越低,规范越脆弱,受到冲击后规范退化甚至衰亡的可能性也越大。美英澳核潜艇合作最主要的影响在于,三国利用其独特的影响力破坏了成长中的核不扩散规范。长期以来,由于已有的核潜艇合作活动都没有利用国际核不扩散规范体系中的军用核动力装置漏洞,使得规避利用该漏洞已经成为一个惯例或成长中的规范。然而,由于美英澳的核潜艇合作涉及大量武器级高浓缩铀的转让,且高调引用了军用核动力装置漏洞,这将对军用核动力装置转让、军民两用物项管制和核“突破时间”这三项成长中的核不扩散规范产生严重冲击。

Nuclear submarine cooperation is a core element of AUKUS,a trilateral security partnership between Australia,the UK and the US.The international community has conducted a thorough debate on whether the cooperation program is consistent with the nuclear non-proliferation norms.Most of the existing studies focus on the incompliance of the AUKUS submarine program with international non-proliferation laws and regulations while ignoring its impacts on the developing international non-proliferation norms.From the perspective of norm evolution,a norm is subject to more damages and is more likely to degenerate if it is violated by many more states with great influence;if a norm is less officially recognized and less generally accepted in the international community,it is more vulnerable to violations.A major problem faced by the AUKUS submarine program is that the three countries are exploiting their influences to undermine the evolving non-proliferation norms.Over the years,none of the existing nuclear submarine cooperation activities has intentionally taken advantage of the loopholes concerning the military nuclear propulsion devices.However,the AUKUS submarine cooperation involves the transfer of a huge amount of weapons-grade uranium and blatantly exploits the loopholes regarding military nuclear propulsion devices,inflicting heavy damages on the three emerging nuclear non-proliferation norms with regard to military nuclear propulsion device transfers,dual-use item control,and nuclear breakout time.