网络威慑与霸权重塑:美国网络威慑战略的演化及动因探析

Cyber Deterrence and Hegemonic Reinvention:An Exploration of the Evolution of U.S.Cyber Deterrence Strategy and Its Motivations

网络空间正在成为信息化时代美国全球战略竞争的主要领域之一。为适应迅速扩张、充满不确定性的网络环境,美国将传统威慑理念引入网络安全战略领域,以网络威慑作为其追求安全利益、扩大竞争优势、重塑国际霸权的重要手段。美国的网络威慑战略不断调整,先后经历了被动应对、主动防御、攻势主导和立体威慑四个阶段,在网络霸权追求的驱使下呈现出威慑态势日益强化、威慑体系不断完善、攻防兼备且偏重实战等趋势。美国的网络威慑战略强化受到多种内外动因的影响,是安全—利益考量、权力—政治诉求、思想—文化根源以及社会—经济因素等变量叠加作用的结果。美国企图超越传统的战略逻辑,但其战略制定与实施并未单纯地停留在“安全”层面上,而是在激进特征的推动下进行战略的演化发展,其安全思维背后的霸权实质形成了一种战略悖论,不仅造成美国的内在逻辑困境,还将导致攻防相悖的脆弱安全环境并动摇国家间的战略平衡。

Cyberspace is becoming one of the major areas of U.S.global strategic competition in the information age.To adapt to the rapidly expanding and uncertain network environment,the United States has introduced the concept of traditional deterrence into the field of cyber security strategy,using cyber deterrence as an important means to pursue its security interests,expand its competitive edge,and reshape its international hegemony.The U.S.cyber deterrence strategy has been continuously adjusted and has gone through four stages featuring passive response,active defense,offensive dominance,and three-dimensional deterrence.Driven by the pursuit of cyber hegemony,the deterrence posture of the U.S.is becoming more aggressive with its deterrence system constantly reinforced.There is a trend of combining both offense and defense and laying particular emphasis on actual combat.The strategic reinforcement of the U.S.is under the influence of a variety of internal and external factors,and is the result of the superimposed effects of such variables as security-interest considerations,power-political appeals,ideology-cultural roots and social-economic relationships.The U.S.is attempting to move beyond the traditional logic of strategy.The formulation and implementation of the U.S.cyber deterrence does not remain purely at the level of“security”,it is driven by a series of radical goals.The hegemonic essence behind its security thinking forms a strategic paradox,which not only creates an inherent logical dilemma for the U.S.,but may also create a fragile security environment in which offense and defense are at odds with each other and shake the strategic balance between states.