大国竞争视角下的区域投资风险评估——以东南亚地区为例

Regional Investment Risk Assessment from the Perspective of Great Power Competition:A Case Study of Southeast Asia

以东南亚地区为例,在传统投资风险评价的基础上,借助地缘位势概念融合了国家博弈互动,建立了大国竞争视角下的地区投资风险框架。研究表明:(1)东南亚各国的基础投资环境风险呈现明显的空间分异变化,总体上表现为北高南低、北变南稳;(2)2010—2019年中美对各国的地缘位势呈现区域异质和演化异构特征;美国在绝大部分区域拥有着地缘位势优势,但中国的差距在逐步缩小;(3)结合地缘位势和基本投资环境风险后的综合风险也存在显著的区际差异;高、低综合风险地区空间分布稳定且发展演替存在惯性;中等综合风险地区呈现为逐渐南向分布;(4)对中国而言,在东南亚地区综合投资风险的集中化趋势在消解,各个国家的综合投资风险处于向均衡化发展的态势。

Investment is an important way for regions to optimize their economic structure and participate in globalization.With the evolution of the world's political and economic environment,investment has become an important link to national competition.Including a big power game element is logical to identify investment risks.Simultaneously,in the context of the increasing scale of China's outbound investment,research on investment risk has focused more on identifying the host country's investment environment.In contrast,the impact of significant country-specific competition factors on national investment has yet to be explored.Given this background,this paper adds the concept of geopotential with space power as a measurement factor to the traditional investment environment risk evaluation and establishes a regionally integrated investment risk identification model from the perspective of great power competition.Taking Southeast Asia as an example,we measure the basic investment environment risks of Southeast Asian countries and changes in the geopolitical positions of China and the United States in Southeast Asia.Based on the above,we identify changes in China's investment risks in Southeast Asia in the competition between China and the United States.The results show the following:(1)The basic investment environment risks of Southeast Asian countries show apparent spatial heterogeneity,and the spatial structure is high in the north and low in the south,with Singapore and Malaysia as stable low-risk areas and Myanmar and Laos as stable high-risk areas.(2)The geopolitical positions of China and the United States from 2010 to 2019 show significant regional heterogeneity.The United States has geopolitical advantages in most regions;however,the gap between China and the United States has gradually narrowed.China's geopolitical positions in Myanmar and Laos are ahead of those in the United States.Moreover,the geopolitical positions of China and the United States in Vietnam and Cambodia show intertwined changes.The geopolitical positions of China and the United States in Singapore,the Philippines,Malaysia,Indonesia,Brunei,and Thailand show a parallel evolution.(3)Significant interregional differences in integrated risks based on geographical potential and basic investment environment risks were observed.The spatial distributions of high-and low-integrated risk areas are stable,with Thailand and the Philippines as stable high-risk areas,Myanmar,Laos,and Vietnam as stable low-risk areas,and medium-integrated risk areas showing expansion to the south of the region.(4)According to kernel density estimation,the spatial gap between China's integrated investment risks in Southeast Asia is narrowing,and a nonpolarized development of evolutionary characteristics is observed.