巴基斯坦工业化进程中产业结构的演变

The evolution of Industrial structure in the process of Industrialization in Pakistan

巴基斯坦虽然在建国初期就制定了工业化发展计划,但一直以来的工业化发展并不理想,在当前的国际经济背景下,重启工业化对巴基斯坦而言至关重要。而中巴经济走廊从提出到第二阶段的开启,为巴基斯坦促进就业、改善基础设施建设、推动技术交流等方面贡献了中国力量,对其工业化发展至关重要。为此,研究巴基斯坦工业化进程中产业结构的演变历程,明确了导致其工业化受阻的主要因素,才能有效精准援助巴基斯坦、助力其工业化。本文通过分析1999-2019年间巴基斯坦三大产业及其细分行业的产值结构变化,剖析产业结构内外部因素与巴基斯坦工业化现状的因果关系,得出以下结论:巴基斯坦产业结构与就业结构不协调,农业拥有大量剩余劳动力,阻碍农业机械化进程,不利于产业与劳动力之间的有机融合,进而抑制产业结构的合理化和高级化发展;工业中占据重要地位的大规模制造业受农产品产量、基础设施水平影响较大,高附加值产品具有发展潜力但目前占比不足,同时受到技术水平等因素的限制,使得工业长期得不到发展;服务业以批发零售业为主,呈现低端化。出口贸易中以低附加值制成品为主,技术研发严重不足;同时侨汇一直是巴基斯坦经济增长的重要来源,通过援助等发展本国的基础设施建设以推动工业化进程;由于国内价格水平不稳定,造成资金外流、有效投资不足;另外,一些非经济因素如政局不稳定、恐怖主义等也会对经济发展、产业结构调整产生负面影响。

Although Pakistan made the industrialization development plan in the early days of the founding of the People's Republic of China,but the industrialization development has been not ideal,in the current international economic background,restart industrialization for Pakistan is very important.The CHINA-Pakistan Economic Corridor(CPEC),from its proposal to the opening of the second phase,has contributed To Pakistan's efforts to boost employment,improve infrastructure construction and promote technological exchanges,and is crucial to its industrialization.Therefore,it is necessary to study the evolution of Industrial structure in the process of industrialization of Pakistan and identify the main factors that hinder its industrialization,so as to effectively and precisely assist Pakistan and assist its industrialization.This paper analyzes the output value structure changes of Pakistan's three major industries and their subsectors from 1999 to 2019,and analyzes the causal relationship between the internal and external factors of industrial structure and the status quo of Pakistan's industrialization.The following conclusions are drawn:The industrial structure of Pakistan is not coordinated with the employment structure,there is a large amount of surplus labor force in agriculture,which hinders the process of agricultural mechanization,is not conducive to the organic integration between industry and labor force,and further inhibits the rationalization and advanced development of industrial structure;The large-scale manufacturing industry,which occupies an important position in the industry,is greatly affected by the output of agricultural products and the level of infrastructure.High value-added products have the development potential,but the proportion is insufficient at present.Meanwhile,due to the limitation of technological level and other factors,the industry cannot be developed for a long time.The service industry is mainly wholesale and retail,showing low-end.At the same time,overseas remittance has always been an important source of Pakistan's economic growth.Pakistan develops its infrastructure through assistance to promote its industrialization process.However,unstable domestic prices result in capital outflow and insufficient effective investment.Other non-economic factors such as political instability and terrorism also contribute to economic development and industrial structure adjustment.