资源开发对新疆产业结构逆向演进的影响研究——基于新疆城市面板数据的实证分析

A Research on the Impact of Resource Development to the Reverse Evolution of|Xinjiang's Industrial Structure——An Empirical Analysis Based on Xinjiang Urban Panel Data

制造业是实体经济的重要基础,制造业的发展是推动新疆经济高质量发展的支撑。近年来,制造业增加值在新疆工业增加值和地区生产总值的占比呈现下降态势。制造业发展不足或者人均收入尚未达到一定水平制造业过早衰退,会造成新疆工业化基础不牢,发展动力不足。文章基于2009年至2019年新疆部分城市面板数据,构建资源开发与产业结构逆向演进的“反工业化”挤出模型,梳理两者之间的影响机制,分析新疆资源开发对产业结构逆向演进的影响。研究表明,新疆资源开发对制造业物质资本和人力资本投入水平产生挤出,其传导机制源于资源开发带来的生产要素价格提升,从而导致要素流动壁垒、资源开发带来高物价和超额消费,导致当地非贸易产品相对价格的上升而形成的消费支出效应、与中心城市的距离以及对人力资本的挤出效应。最终,文章提出做好资源财富的调控管理、注重创新与提升人力资本水平、打造区域先进制造业集群、资源产业链延伸与制造业发展等政策建议。

The manufacturing industry is an important foundation of the real economy,and the development of the manufacturing industry is the support to promote the high-quality economic development of Xinjiang.In recent years,the proportion of manufacturing added value in Xinjiang's industrial added value and regional GDP has been declining.Insufficient development of the manufacturing industry or premature decline of the manufacturing industry before the per capita income has reached a certain level will result in the weak foundation of Xinjiang's industrialization and lack of motivation for development.Based on the panel data of some cities in Xinjiang from 2009 to 2019,this paper builds an extrusion model of resource development and reverse evolution of industrial structure,combs the impact mechanism between them,and analyzes the impact of Xinjiang resource development on the reverse evolution of industrial structure.The research shows that the resource development in Xinjiang has squeezed out the material capital and human capital input level of manufacturing industry.Its transmission mechanism is mainly due to the barriers to factor flow caused by the increase in the price of production factors brought about by resource development,the consumption expenditure effect caused by the rise in the relative price of local non-trade products caused by high prices and excessive consumption,the distance from central city and the crowding-out of human capital.Finally,this paper puts forward policy suggestions such as doing well in the regulation and management of resource wealth,focusing on innovation and improving the level of human capital,building regional advanced manufacturing clusters,extending the resource industry chain and developing manufacturing industry.