新型城镇化试点政策对人口流动的影响

Research on the Impact of New Urbanization Pilot Policy on Population Mobility

优化城镇发展转型路径、实现人口合理有序流动,是促进区域协调发展、实现经济高质量增长的重要路径。文章利用中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,构建双重差分模型,系统评估新型城镇化试点政策对人口流动的影响。结果显示,新型城镇化试点政策使试点城市的流动人口规模增大了10.1%。异质性分析发现,新型城镇化试点政策促使人口向东部城市和中西部省会城市流动,且这一试点政策在财政压力较低的城市对人口流动的影响更加显著。此外,新型城镇化试点政策能显著提高流动人口的长期定居意愿与社会融入程度。据此,文章建议健全新型城镇化建设的财政支持体系,多维度推进新型城镇化高质量发展,立足于人口流动格局差异化,推动新型城镇化建设区域均衡发展,并以高质量公共服务助力流动人口在流入城市定居和融入。

Optimizing the path of urban development and promoting a proper and orderly population mobility are important paths to promote a coordinated regional development and achieve high-quality economic growth.The article uses data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey and a difference-in-differences model to assess the impact of the pilot policy of new urbanization on population mobility.The results show that the new urbanization pilot policy increases the size of urban migrants by 10.1%.The heterogeneity analysis reveals that the new urbanization pilot policy contributes to the increase of migrants in eastern cities,and central and western provincial capitals.It has more significant impacts on the population mobility in cities with low fiscal pressure.In addition,the pilot policy significantly increases the long-term settlement intention and social integration of the migrants,which is in line with the essential requirement of"people-oriented"urbanization.Accordingly,the article suggests that it is important to improve the financial support system for new-type urbanization,to promote a multidimensional high-quality development and a balanced inter-regional development through differentiated population mobility patterns,and to enhance migrants'integration in the destination cities with high-quality public services.