对外出农民工统计方式的重新思考

A Reflection on the Statistical Calibration of Migrant Workers

外出农民工作为中国流动人口的重要组成部分,其流向涉及农民工市民化和城乡一体化的整体布局,对城乡资源分配格局的谋划具有重要的参考意义。在不同的研究视角中,对外出群体不恰当的统计方式会误导对农民工市民化成本和劳动力流出地发展方向的判断。文章从现有外出农民工统计方式的历史发展出发,讨论其中存在的逻辑惯性,指出这一惯性与现实发展之间的矛盾,并利用CLDS2016年数据识别出被忽视的“在家异地就业”群体。据此,文章将外出农民工话题分为“从流入地看外出的流动性”和“从流出地看外出的非农性”两种视角。文章建议,在关注流动性时,以离家为样本筛选的逻辑起点,以县域作为外出的空间边界;在关注非农性时,可以忽略其是否离家,而考虑以镇(乡)域作为外出的空间边界。

Migrant workers comprise an important part of the population in migration.And their mobility is highly relevant in urbanization and resources reallocation strategies.In different research perspectives,developing appropriate statistical calibrations forms the cornerstone in estimating the cost of migrant workers'citizenization and evaluating the development of the sending areas.This article reviews the historical development of existing statistical measures of migrant worker and discusses the underlying logic inertia.And it points out the contradictions between the existing logic inertia and the changing reality and needs.Using data collected through the CLDS2016,we identify the migrant workers living at home,who are neglected in the existing statistical system empirically.We propose two viewpoints of studying migrant workers,namely viewing the mobility of migrant workers from the destination,and viewing the nonagricultural feature of migrant workers from the origin.The former treats home-leaving as the logical starting point,and uses county boundaries as the spatial calibration criteria.And the latter uses the township boundary as the spatial criteria in statistical calibration,and neglects the fact of home-leaving.