采矿业繁荣、产业集聚与制造业发展

MINING BOOM,INDUSTRIAL AGGLOMERATION AND MANUFACTURING DEVELOPMENT

发展制造业是“十四五”时期资源型地区实现经济转型和可持续发展的重要出路。从理论上看,采矿业对制造业发展会同时产生挤出效应和挤入效应。本文基于1998—2013年中国规模以上制造业企业微观数据以及县级数据,检验了采矿业繁荣对当地制造业的影响。本文研究结果表明,采矿业繁荣尽管提高了当地制造业的劳动力成本,但仍然促进了当地制造业总产值和企业生产率的增长,即挤入效应大于挤出效应。从作用机制上看:首先,采矿业繁荣通过产业关联效应带动了上游制造业的发展;其次,通过市场规模扩大和集聚效应,采矿业繁荣提升了非关联制造业企业的生产率,从而抵消了劳动力成本上升带来的不利影响;最后,地方财政支出扩张也有利于当地制造业的发展。这意味着资源型地区通过因势利导,大力发展与资源相关联的制造业、培育制造业产业集群,将有助于制造业成为驱动经济增长的引擎,推动区域实现高质量发展。

Developing manufacturing industry is an important way for resource-based regions to realize economic transformation and sustainable development during the“14th Five-year Plan”period.Theoretically,the mining industry will produce both crowding-out and crowding-in effects on the development of the manufacturing industry.Based on the micro data of above-scale industrial enterprises from 1998 to 2013 and county-level data,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of the mining boom on local manufacturing.The results show that although the mining boom boosted local wages,it still promoted local manufacturing output and productivity,implying that the crowding-in effect is stronger than the crowding-out effect.From the perspective of the mechanism:firstly,mining boom drove the development of the upstream manufacturing industry through industry linkage effect;secondly,through the expansion of the market scale and agglomeration effect,it improved the productivity of non-related manufacturing enterprises,thereby offsetting the increase of labor costs;finally,the expansion of local fiscal expenditure was also conducive to the development of local manufacturing industry.developing resource-related manufacturing industries and cultivating manufacturing industry clusters will help the manufacturing industry to become the economic engine of resource-based regions and promote high-quality regional development.