“南海行为准则”的谈判进程及前景分析——以规范生成理论为视角

Negotiation Process and Prospect Analysis of the"Code of Conduct in the South China Sea":From the Perspective of Norm Generation Theory

作为中国与东盟国家之间久经交涉但尚未生成的规范,“南海行为准则”谈判进程的每一个阶段都与规范生成理论所描绘的一般生成过程有着相似之处,运用该理论探究“准则”的谈判进程显然是适用的。就目前情况看,围绕“准则”的谈判已经先后走过了“议程提出”“施压劝导”和“平台创建”三个阶段,当前正处于最为重要也最为艰难的“文本磋商”阶段,有关各方虽然达成了一系列成果,但在一些核心问题上依然存有深刻分歧,这在根本上决定了其作为正式规范生成的近期概率。对“准则”的谈判进程来说,既有积极因素的促动,也有消极因素的阻碍,其前景如何将会是各方面因素综合作用的结果。这就要求中国进一步增强对未来南海局势变化的预判和应对能力,以争取能对包括“准则”在内的各类相关问题真正做到防患于未然。

As a norm that has been long negotiated but not yet realized between China and ASEAN countries,the"Code of Conduct in the South China Sea"(COC)has followed a path of negotiations which largely parallels the normestablishmentprocess asdescribed by theories of norm generation.As such,it is obvious that this theory can be applied to explore the negotiation process of the COC.At present,negotiations on the COC have already passed through three stages:":Agenda Proposal","Pressure and Persuasion",and"Platform Establishment",and are currently in the most important and difficult""Textual Negotiation"stage.While the parties concerned have made a series of achievements in this stage,there are still profound differences on core issues,which fundamentally impacttthe probability of its formalization as a norm in the near term.There are both positive factors which are advancing the negotiation process of the COC as well as negative factors which are hindering it,and it will be the overall dynamics between these factors which determine the outcome.Considering this,China should further enhance its ability to predict and respond to future changes in the South China Sea in order to prevent potential incidents,including around the COC.