第三方支付机构与商业银行双渠道风险传染机理研究

Research on the contagion effect of dual-channel risks of third-party payment institutions on commercial banks

后疫情时代,商业银行通过深化与第三方支付机构合作,推动了自身的数字化转型,但也不可避免地带来了系统性风险的隐患。基于中国201家银行资产负债表数据构建银行网络和双渠道风险传染模型,全面地讨论第三方支付机构对银行系统的风险传染问题。研究发现:与单一风险相比,双渠道风险存在1+1>2的放大效应,形成超额损失,更具破坏性:当第三方支付机构渠道和银行同业渠道风险共同作用时,风险在银行系统中的传染会出现非线性变化,造成较大超额损失,显著放大风险的传染效应。

In the post-epidemic era,commercial banks have promoted their own digital transformation by deepening cooperation with third-party payment institutions,however they also inevitably bring systemic risks.This paper builds a banking network and dual-channel risk contagion model based on the balance sheet data of 201 Chinese banks and discusses the risk contagion of third-party payment institutions to the banking system more comprehensively.The key finding of this paper is that,compared with a single risk,dual-channel risk has an amplification effect of 1+1>2,resulting in excess loss,which is more destructive.When the risks of third-party payment institution channels and interbank channels work together,the contagion of risks in the banking system will show nonlinear changes,causing large excess losses and significantly amplifying the contagious effects of risks.