中国老年人养老意愿变迁研究——基于横断历史元分析的方法

Changes of Older Adults'Care Willingness in China——A Method Based on Cross-Temporal Meta-Analysis

我国人口老龄化进程正在不断加快,从轻度老龄化社会进入中度老龄化社会仅用了二十余年.老年人希望如何养老一直是学界关注的热点.学界通过截面调查数据获得了关于不同时期老年人养老意愿的较多成果.但是,关于养老意愿的连续性纵向研究相对较少,且结论存在不一致.本研究利用已有的老年人养老意愿研究成果,基于横断历史元分析的方法,考察我国老年人养老意愿随时期变化的趋势.研究结果表明,近20年,我国老年人养老意愿以家庭养老为主,靠子女养老的意愿呈下降趋势,自我养老意愿随时期上升;老年人机构养老意愿随时期呈现逐渐上升趋势,但上升幅度较小;城乡老年人养老意愿存在一定差异,农村老年人仍然具有较高的子女养老意愿,而城市老年人对子女养老的意愿呈下降趋势,对社区、机构等社会化养老模式的意愿呈逐渐上升趋势.

China's aging process has been accelerating.It took only more than 20 years for China to go from a mildly aging society to a moderately aging society.The older adults'care willingness have always been the research hotspots.The studies have obtained results on the aged care willingness in different periods through cross-sectional survey data.However,there are relatively few longitudinal studies on the changes of it,and the conclusions are inconsistent.Based on the existing research results,this paper uses the cross-temporal metaanalysis method to investigate the trend of the older adults'care willingness in China over the years.The results show that family care has always been the main care willingness,but the willingness to rely on children for old age is declining.The self-care willingness has increased over time.The old-age institution has gradually increased over time,but the increase is limited.Besidesthere are differences of older adults'care willingness between urban and rural areas.The rural elderly still have a high willingness to rely on the family care in general,while the urban elderly's family care willingness is on the decline,and the formal care willingness such as communities and institutions are on the rise.