货币增长有助于解释近期的通胀飙升吗?

Does money growth help explain the recent inflation surge?

货币增长和通胀之间的关联强度取决于通胀状态:当通胀高企时,它们是强相关的,但在低通胀时则几乎不存在联系。在近期从低通胀向高通胀的转换中,也可以看到其中的联系。货币供应增加先于通胀抬升,货币增长强劲的国家出现了更高的通胀。关注货币增长将有助于改进疫情后的通胀预测,说明其信息价值可能被忽视。

The strength of the link between money growth and inflation depends on the inflation regime:it is oneto-one when inflation is high and virtually non-existent when it is low.A link can also be seen in the recent possible transition from a low-to a high-inflation regime.An upsurge in money growth preceded the inflation flare-up,and countries with stronger money growth saw markedly higher inflation.Looking at money growth would have helped to improve post-pandemic inflation forecasts,suggesting that its information value may have been neglected.