2023年5月中国需关注的突发公共卫生事件风险评估

Risk assessment of public health emergencies concerned in China,May 2023

目的评估2023年5月在我国(不含香港、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区,下同)发生或者可能由境外输入的突发公共卫生事件风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(自治区、直辖市)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果预计2023年5月突发公共卫生事件报告数可能较4月增多,以新型冠状病毒感染、水痘、诺如病毒肠炎和手足口病等传染病类事件为主。我国本土新型冠状病毒感染疫情在2023年4月上旬达到2022年11月以来的最低水平,4月中下旬疫情开始出现上升趋势,XBB进化分支病毒已成为我国疫情主要流行株,预计再感染疫情将逐渐增多,但出现对医疗和社会冲击的规模性疫情可能性则较小。目前全国手足口病整体疫情处于快速上升初期,预计5月疫情将上升。根据既往趋势预测,5月开始进入食物中毒事件高发期。结论对新型冠状病毒感染予以特别关注,对食物中毒和手足口病予以一般关注。

Objective To assess the risk of public health emergencies that may occur or be imported from abroad in China(except Hong Kong and Macao Special Administrative Regions and Taiwan province,the same below)in May 2023.Methods Based on various data and departmental notification information on domestic and foreign public health emergencies reports and surveillance of key infectious diseases,the expert consultation method was used and experts from provincial(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government)centers for disease prevention and control were invited to participate in the assessment by video conference.Results It is predicted that the incidence of public health emergencies in May 2023 would be higher than that in April 2023.The main public health emergencies would be infectious diseases such as COVID-19,varicella,norovirus enteritis and hand,foot and mouth disease.The incidence of SARS-COV-2 infection in China reached the lowest level since November 2022 in early April 2023,and the epidemic began to rise in mid-tolate April.XBB virus has become the main circulating strain of SARS-COV-2 infection in China.It is predicted that the incidence of reinfections will increase gradually in May 2023,but the possibility of an outbreak of scale with a medical and social impact is less.At present,the overall epidemic of hand,foot and mouth disease in China is in the early stage of rapid rise,and it is predicted that the epidemic will rise in May.According to the previous trend,the high incidence of food poisoning began in May.Conclusion Special attention is given to COVID-19,and general attention is given to food poisoning and hand,foot and mouth disease.