双循环背景下创新韧性对高技术产业发展影响研究

Research on the impact of innovation resilience on the development of high-tech industries under the background of dual cycles

高技术产业的发展对双循环战略的实现起到重要影响,而创新韧性是保障高技术产业创新系统在外部环境变迁下“化险为夷”并实现“进化”的关键。本文借助演进韧性及经济韧性的研究理解创新韧性内涵,并基于分析双循环下创新韧性对高技术产业产出(外贸出口、国内需求)理论机制,利用面板回归模型、面板门槛模型实证创新韧性与外贸出口或国内需求间的线性、非线性效应,随后借助BP-人工神经网络进行稳健性检验。研究结果发现:创新韧性对外贸出口的影响呈现负向作用,对国内需求无影响;低水平外贸出口下,创新韧性不利于外贸出口;创新韧性增加,其对外贸出口的负向作用减小;创新韧性正向作用于国内需求需要较大的国内需求;创新韧性正向作用于国内需求需要保持中等创新韧性。

At present,China is under the dual effects of internal environmental changes that transform economic construction into high-quality development and external shocks such as epidemics and international trade frustration.The emergence of the dual-cycle strategy has put forward higher requirements for high-tech industry innovation.How to deal with the impact of shocks and stabilize the innovation system of high-tech industries.The resilience research provides a new perspective.The resilience theory emphasizes the optimization of the system's resistance and balance to external shocks.It studies the impact of innovation resilience on high-tech industries in the context of dual cycles.The influence of development is very important to stable economic development.Therefore,it is necessary to discuss the following aspects:First,there is no relevant research on innovation resilience at this stage.What is innovation resilience?How to measure innovation resilience?Second,what is the impact mechanism of innovation resilience on the output of high-tech industries(foreign trade exports,domestic demand)?What are the characteristics and laws of its influence?Third,under the dual-cycle background,the competition status of enterprises in the international and domestic markets is different,which will inevitably lead to different degrees of impact of innovation resilience on domestic demand and foreign trade exports.Does innovation resilience affect foreign trade demand or domestic demand more?This article first defines"innovation resilience"on the basis of related research on"resilience"and"economic resilience",that is,the ability of innovation to withstand external shocks and maintain system stability,restore or even evolve to a higher functional state.Second,refer to the core variable method of economic resilience measurement to measure innovation resilience,draw on the research paradigm proposed by Martin in 2019,and select the sales revenue of new products that measure the effects of innovation activities as the core variable.Subsequently,taking the high-tech industry as the research object,analyze the impact mechanism of innovation resilience on the output(foreign trade,domestic demand)of the high-tech industry.In the mechanism of the impact of innovation resilience on foreign trade exports,positive mechanisms include innovation agglomeration effects,knowledge spillover effects,increased levels of R&D expenditures,innovation costs reduction,improved competitive advantages,and optimization of the trade environment.Negative mechanisms include cost accumulation effects and technological competition.Effect,knowledge crowding effect;in the mechanism of the impact of innovation resilience on domestic demand,the positive mechanism includes the input compensation effect,the innovation agglomeration effect,the resource allocation effect,the knowledge accumulation effect,and the optimization of innovation management.The negative mechanism includes:cost accumulation effect,knowledge crowding effect;at the same time,foreign trade exports and domestic demand also have feedback mechanisms for innovation resilience,including feedback enhancement effects and economies of scale.This paper uses the high-tech industry data to study the linear and non-linear relationship between innovation resilience and high-tech industry output(foreign trade exports,domestic demand)through panel data models and panel threshold models,and uses BP-artificial neural networks to test the robustness.Determine the degree of impact of innovation resilience on foreign trade exports and domestic demand.The results of the study found that:First,the impact of innovation resilience on foreign trade exports is negative,and has no impact on domestic demand;second,under low-level foreign trade exports,innovation resilience is not conducive to foreign trade exports;third,innovation resilience increases,which has no effect on domestic demand.The negative effect of foreign trade exports is reduced;fourth,innovation resilience is positively acting on domestic demand,which requires greater domestic demand;fifth,innovation resilience is positively acting on domestic demand and requires maintaining moderate innovation resilience.