RCEP关税减让与制造业价值链地位变化:基于动态递归CGE模型的测算

RCEP Tariff Reduction and Manufacturing Value Chain Status Change:Calculation Based on Dynamic Recursive CGE Model

2023年RCEP生效已满一周年,其生效后给各成员国之间带来的贸易变化备受关注。文章将KWW增加值分解框架与标准GTAP模型进行衔接,并对模型中的相关数据进行动态递归,依据RCEP关税承诺表中的数据确定不同时期关税减让的力度,对RCEP生效前以及生效后短期和长期内的情况进行研究,探索RCEP关税减让对成员国制造业参与全球价值链所带来的影响。研究结果表明:在贸易增加值增加方面,RCEP协定生效后各成员国制造业行业出口贸易的国内增加值和国外增加值较基期均出现增长,但不同成员国之间增长的程度并不同步;在全球价值链参与程度方面,随着协定生效后关税减让幅度的不断加大,各成员国参与全球价值链生产体系的程度也不断加深;RCEP关税减让提高了成员国制造业产业在全球价值链中的位置,但各成员国仍有制造业产业处于全球价值链中的不利位置;在产业链关联方面,RCEP生效后一系列关税减让政策的实施会使各成员国的制造业贸易联系更加紧密,产业链关联程度得到进一步提高。从总体上来看,RCEP协定生效带来的制造业关税减让为各成员进一步融入全球价值链生产体系、提高制造业国际分工地位、增强成员国产业链关联程度提供了新的机遇。

It has been one year since the entry into force of RCEP,and the effects of RCEP on trade among member nations have attracted much attention.In this paper,the KWW value added decomposition is linked to the standard GTAP model,and the relevant data in the model are dynamically recurred.Then,this paper analyzes the strength of tariff concessions in different periods based on the data in the RCEP tariff commitment table,and explores the impact of RCEP tariff concessions on the participation of member nations'manufacturing industries in global value chains(GVCs).The results are as follows,firstly,in terms of trade value added,both domestic value added and foreign value added of export industries in member nations will increase after the RCEP coming into effect,but the degree of increasing is not the same among different member nations;secondly,in terms of the degree of participation in GVCs,as the tariff concessions increases,the degree of participation in the production system of GVCs in member nations also deepens;thirdly,RCEP tariff concessions have improved the position of manufacturing industries in GVCs,but there are still some manufacturing industries in disadvantaged positions in GVCs for member nations;finally,in terms of industrial chain linkages,the implementation of tariff concessions will make the manufacturing trade linkage of member nations closer,and the degree of industrial chain linkage will be further improved.On the whole,tariff concessions for manufacturing industries brought by RCEP provide new opportunities for members to integrate into the production system of GVCs,improve the status of manufacturing industries in the international division of labor,and increase the degree of inter-industry chain linkages.