中国货币政策自主操作空间的历史考察:基于美联储货币政策周期的视角

Historical Review on the Independent of China's Monetary Policy:Based on Fed Monetary Policy Cycle

中国是经济大国,需要货币政策独立性。中国人民银行依据扩展的三角理论框架,构建了货币政策独立、有管理的浮动汇率和一定程度资本管制的制度架构。文章借助中美货币政策周期的比较,理论解释和事实检验了中国货币政策的自主操作空间,结论是现阶段中国自主利率调控空间或受到美联储联邦基金利率水平高低的影响,保持一定的中美利差或是最优选择,中国人民银行基础货币供应完全具备了自主与独立选择的空间,中美利差和人民币汇率预期变化下的资本流动不对基础货币供应产生影响。

China is an economic power,which needs the independence of monetary policy.According to the extended triangle theory framework,the Central Bank of China has constructed an institutional framework of independent monetary policy,managed floating exchange rate and a certain degree of capital control.Based on the comparison of monetary policy cycles between China and the United States,this paper theoretically explains and empirically tests the independence of China's monetary policy.The conclusion is that,at this stage,independence of China's interest rate may be affected by the federal fund rates,thus,a better choice is maintaining a certain Sino-U.S.interest rate spread.The basic money supply of the Central Bank of China has the independence,capital flow driven by interest rate spread and RMB exchange rate will not have an impact on the base money supply.