人民币增加值实际有效汇率测算及影响因素分析:基于一般均衡的理论分析框架

RMB Value Added Real Effective Exchange Rate Measurement and Analysis of Influencing Factors:A General Equilibrium Based Theoretical Analysis Framework

文章在增加值实际有效汇率理论框架的基础上,构建了增加值物量生产函数,施加了消费者预算约束,以此将外生的最终使用物量及增加值价格指数内生化处理,再基于约束型假设尝试构建了人民币潜在增加值实际有效汇率,并将其与增加值实际有效汇率进行比较。研究结果表明,面对同一时期的外生冲击,潜在增加值实际有效汇率比增加值实际有效汇率的反应大(更敏感),并且价格指数差异为两种实际有效汇率总体差异的主要来源。这意味着,潜在增加值实际有效汇率能够较为全面地反映增加值价格指数对增加值物量需求的影响。进一步研究表明,经济扰动(金融危机)、经济政策的改变(政府支出、贸易依存度的变化)等外生冲击是引起潜在增加值实际有效汇率变动的原因之一。通过文章构建的实际有效汇率能够探究通过外生冲击刺激要素价格变动的传导机制,进而为要素价格市场化改革提供一定的参考与借鉴。此外,通过研究各国在达到充分就业情况下的最终使用物量和要素价格指数对人民币实际有效汇率的影响,可以探究扩大内需和供给侧深化改革间的联系。

Based on the theoretical framework of the real effective exchange rate of value added,this paper constructs a production function of value added volumes and imposes a consumer budget constraint to endogenize the exogenous final uses in volume and value added price indexes,and then tries to construct a potential real effective exchange rate of value added for the RMB based on the constraint assumptions,and compares it with the real effective exchange rate of value added and analyzes the influencing factors.The results show that the potential value added real effective exchange rate responds more sensitive than the value added real effective exchange rate in the face of exogenous shocks in the same period,and the difference in price indexes is the main contribution to the aggregate difference between the two real effective exchange rates.This implies that the potential value added real effective exchange rate captures more comprehensively the impact of the value added price index on the volume demand for value added volumes.Further research shows that exogenous shocks such as economic disturbances(financial crisis)and changes in economic policies(government consumption,changes in trade dependence)are among the causes of changes in the potential value added real effective exchange rate.Through the real effective exchange rate constructed in this paper,we are able to explore the transmission mechanism that stimulates factor price changes through exogenous shocks,which in turn provides some suggestions and references for factor price market reform.In addition,by exploring the impact of end-use goods and factor price indexes on the real effective exchange rate of RMB when countries reach full employment,it is useful to explore the link between expanding domestic demand and deepening supply-side reform.