“十四五”时期我国群众体育与体育产业共生发展趋势与优化路径研究

On the Symbiotic Development Trend and Optimization Path of Mass Sports and Sports Industry in China During the 14th Five-Year-Plan Period

采用Eviews10.0软件构建VAR模型,对我国群众体育与体育产业发展趋势与联系进行实证分析。研究发现:1)群众体育与体育产业之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;2)群众体育相关产业是体育产业规模增长的Granger原因;3)当群众体育相关产业在短期内偏离长期均衡关系时,将以1.76倍的力度对后期偏离状态进行正向修正,从而保持两者间的共生关系;4)体育产业以及群众体育相关产业在短期内的规模发展的贡献度基本来自于自身,从长期效果来看,体育产业的发展中群众体育发挥了重要的推动作用。

Using Eviews 10.0 software to build VAR model,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the development trend and relationship between mass sports and sports industry in China.The research finds:1) there is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between mass sports and sports industry;2) Mass sports related industry is the Granger reason for the growth of sports industry scale;3) When the mass sports related industry deviates from the long-term equilibrium relationship in the short term,it will make positive correction to the late deviation state with 1.76 times of effort,so as to maintain the symbiotic relationship between the two;4) The contribution of sports industry and mass sports related industries to the scale development in the short term basically comes from themselves.In the long run,mass sports have played an important role in promoting the development of sports industry.