重点区域碳达峰预测及实施路径研究

Research on carbon peak prediction and implementation path in key regions

根据重点区域能源和二氧化碳排放历史,综合考虑工业、建筑、交通三大重点领域未来发展趋势及政策走向,采用LEAP模型与情景分析法对重点区域能源消费总量、碳排放达峰峰值、碳排放总量进行预测分析,确定达峰目标,给出相关政策措施及达峰路径。

Based on the historical status of energy and carbon dioxide emissions in key regions,this study compre-hensively considers the future development trends and policy trends of three key areas:industry,construction and transportation,and uses LEAP model and scenario analysis to forecast and analyze the total energy consumption,peak carbon emissions and total carbon emissions in key regions,determine the peak targets,and give relevant policy measures and peak implementation paths.