中国式现代化水平测度、地区差异及分布动态演进

Level measurement,regional differences and distributed dynamic evolution of Chinese modernization

基于人口规模巨大的现代化、全体人民共同富裕的现代化、物质文明和精神文明相协调的现代化、人与自然和谐共生的现代化、走和平发展道路的现代化5个维度构建中国式现代化水平的评价指标体系,采用熵权法测度2011—2020年中国省域现代化水平,运用Dagum基尼系数、Kernel核密度估计、Markov链对区域差异、时空演变和收敛稳态进行分析。结果表明:(1)我国各省份现代化水平在不断上升,但仍存在区域发展不均衡的情况,且呈现“东优西劣”布局;从地区间总体增速来看,中部地区>西部地区>东部地区,呈现“良性追赶”的趋势,符合现代经济发展规律。(2)全国现代化水平的总体差距呈现缩小趋势,东部和西部地区内部差距均呈现波动缩小的趋势,中部地区内部差距呈现波动扩大的趋势,我国现代化水平总体差异主要来源于地区间差距。(3)各省份现代化水平发展流动性不强,各水平地区突破自身发展阶段和发展困境较为困难。

Report to the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC) clearly points out that from now on,the central task of the CPC is to unite and lead the Chinese people of all ethnic groups to build China into a modern socialist country in all respects,advance toward the Second Centenary Goal,and promote the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on all fronts.Chinese modernization is a socialist modernization led by the Chinese Communist Party,with five major characteristics,including modernization of a huge population,modernization of common prosperity for all,modernization of material and cultural-ethical advancement,modernization of harmony between humanity and nature,and modernization of peaceful development.All the characteristics have common features of modernization based on both the development of the world and China's own national conditions.It is also of great significance to promote the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.Therefore,based on Chinese modernization,a scientific and reasonable comprehensive evaluation index system of modernization level of Chinese style is constructed by selecting 24 sub-dimensions,and entropy weight method is used to measure the modernization level of Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2020.On the basis of measuring the modernization level of Chinese provinces in 2011-2020,the Dagum Gini coefficient,Kernel density estimation and Markov chain are used to carry out an empirical analysis on regional differences,spatial and temporal evolution and convergence steady state.The results show that:(1) The modernization level of each province in China is increasing,but there is still an uneven regional development,showing a spatial distribution pattern of “East is better than West” and facing dimensional imbalance in the development process.The overall growth rate among regions is “CentralWestEast”,showing a trend of “benign catching up” in line with the law of modern economic development.(2) The overall national gap shows a trend of narrowing,and both the gaps within the eastern and western regions show a fluctuating trend of narrowing,while the gap within the central region shows a fluctuating trend of widening;the gaps between the eastern-central,eastern-western and central-western regions all show a trend of narrowing,but the gap between these regions is still the main cause of the overall difference in China's modernization level.The eastern and western regions do not have the problem of multi-polar differentiation and the problem of polarization in the central region has been effectively solved.(3) The development of modernization level in each province highly differs.Besides,it is difficult for each level region to break through its own development stage,and there is no leapfrog development.In addition,the convergence steady state results show that the provinces of “low” levels of modernization will eventually die out,and China's modernization level will generally move towards a higher level.Based on the above findings,in order to further promote the development of modernization in China,policy recommendations are proposed in terms of governance tools,regional leadership,development layout,coordinated development and rural revitalization.