应急物资需求预测研究现状与发展趋势

Review of Current Situation and Development Trend of Emergency Materials Demand Forecasting

应急物资需求预测研究是灾后应急救援的重要组成部分。为系统地了解应急物资需求预测的研究现状,查阅大量中外参考文献,对目前应急物资需求预测研究中常用的案例推理法、神经网络法和灰色系统预测法进行了讨论分析,总结了各自的优缺点及适用条件;并分析总结了近几年的研究重点方向。结果表明,应急物资需求预测在多元化、准确性、智能化等方面的进一步研究对灾后救援有着更大的现实意义。基于此,对应急物资需求预测未来的发展方向及研究重点进行了展望,对于应急物资需求预测未来的研究及应急救援体系的建立具有一定的参考作用。

It is a vital part of post-disaster emergency rescue for research on emergency materials demand forecasting.To systematically investigate the current research situation of emergency material demand forecasting,a large number of domestic and foreign references was consulted,prediction methods commonly like the case reasoning method,neural network method and grey system prediction method used in emergency material demand forecasting research,and the above method's respective advantages and disadvantages and applicable conditions were discussed and analyzed.Finally,the key research directions in recent years was proposed.The results show that it is significant for post-disaster relief to further study emergency material demand forecasting in diversification,accuracy and intelligence.Thus,the future development direction and research focus of emergency material demand forecasting prediction are expected,which has a certain reference value for the future research of emergency material demand forecasting and the establishment of an emergency rescue system.