共同富裕目标下农户贴息贷款对低收入群体增收效应研究

Research on the Effect of Discount Interest Loans to Low-income Groups Under the Goal of Common Prosperity

中国脱贫攻坚战取得决定性胜利,金融发挥的作用不可忽视,尤其是农户贴息贷款的减贫效应和增收促进作用,对防止贫困人群返贫、推动乡村振兴和实现共同富裕具有重要意义。以新疆南疆四地州2017年起实施的“政农通”农户贴息贷款政策构造准自然实验,并借助“建档立卡”信息系统提取相关数据,使用双重差分法(DID)进行回归分析,研究贴息贷款对农户尤其是低收入群体收入可持续增长的促进作用,结果发现:“政农通”农户贴息贷款政策有效促进了南疆四地州低收入群体收入的增长,但这种促进作用具有时滞性,总体呈现边际效应递减趋势;在不同收入群体中,相对较高收入人群的增收递减效应较为明显;农户贴息贷款具有趋利性和风险规避性,信贷资金用于养殖业项目的增收效果优于种植业和创业性项目。为检验农户贴息贷款对收入增长促进作用的机理,使用Bootstrap中介效应模型对投资意愿、种植面积、养殖规模三个代理变量进行了回归分析,结果显示三个中介变量置信区间内均不包含零值,验证了中介效应成立。最后,基于以上分析建议在贴息贷款政策连续性、信贷产品创新、农村地区金融素养、数字普惠金融等方面发挥长效机制,以期进一步缩小城乡收入差距,最终实现乡村振兴和共同富裕目标。

China's decisive victory in poverty alleviation has been played partly a part of role by finance,especially the poverty reduction effect and income increase promotion of subsidized interest loans for rural households,which is of great significance to prevent the poor from falling back into poverty,promotes the rural revitalization and achieve common prosperity.Based on the quasi-natural experiment of the “Zheng Nong Tong” rural household discount loan policy implemented in the four prefectures of southern Xinjiang since 2017,and using the regression analysis of the double difference method(DID) with the help of the relevant data of the national poverty alleviation and development information system “filing and establishing cards”,the role of discounted interest loans is studied on the sustainable income growth of rural households,especially low-income groups,and it concludes that the implementation of the “Zheng Nong Tong” loan policy has effectively promoted the income growth of local low-income people.The income promotion effect has a certain lag in timeliness,and its significance begins to increase in the second year of implementation,and the overall marginal effect shows a decreasing trend over time,especially among relatively high-income groups.When the loan amount cannot meet the production efficiency,the marginal effect of the promotion effect of subsidized interest loans for farmers will be reduced,especially for groups with relatively high incomes.As an important supplement to the capital elements in production and operation activities,the subsidized interest loan for farmers needs to be integrated with other production factors,and the natural conditions,industrial environment,financial environment,and development stage of the loan project should also be considered in order to maximize the capital effect.The effect of subsidized interest loans for farmers participating in farmers' professional cooperatives in increasing income from aquaculture is significantly higher than that of planting and entrepreneurial loans,indicating that credit funds are profit-seeking and risk-averse,and investment in low-risk projects has the least financial constraints and credit exclusion for low-income people.Farmers' subsidized interest loans promote income growth by increasing farmers' willingness to invest in projects,expanding breeding scale and planting area.In order to test the regression results,the parallel trend method,placebo method,and instrumental variable method are used to perform regression tests,which proves the rationality of the results.In order to further examine the mechanism of the effect of subsidized interest loans on income growth,the Bootstrap mediation effect model is built to conduct regression analysis of the three proxy variables of investment intention,planting area and breeding scale,and the results show that none of the three mediation variables contain zero value in the confidence interval,which verifies that the mediation effect is established.Finally,based on the above analysis,the following suggestions are put forward:The development of subsidized interest loans for farmers should be sustainable to ensure that the loan funds play a role in promoting the sustainable growth of farmers' income;Rural household discounted interest loans should give full play to the long-term role of the market mechanism,also give play to the credit line assessment mechanism of commercial banks under the premise of thorough policies,appropriately enlarge the loan amount according to the evaluation model of commercial banks for relatively high-income groups with large loan demand,and moderately reduce the loan amount for groups with relatively low income,so that the funds are appropriate to the industrial scale and technical level,and the maximum utility of funds should be brought into play.