住房支付能力与外出农民工城市落户意愿

Housing Affordability and Urban Settlement Intention of Migrant Workers

新型城镇化的核心是农业转移人口市民化。随着新一轮户籍制度改革稳步推进,以户籍为代表的制度性因素对农民工城市落户的限制日渐式微,住房购买能力等经济性因素受到广泛关注。文章利用2017年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据(CMDS2017)匹配全国285个地级市房价数据,研究住房支付能力对农民工城市落户意愿的影响。研究发现:房价收入比上升显著降低外出农民工在流入城市的落户意愿,考虑内生性和稳健性后这一结论仍成立。进一步机制分析发现:房价收入比上升通过增加农民工本地买房困难感知、降低其社会活动参与和城市融入主观感受,进而降低其在流入城市的落户意愿。个体异质性分析发现:房价收入比上升对新生代、高学历、本地无自有住房和有家属随迁农民工群体城市落户意愿的抑制作用更大。城市异质性分析发现:随着城市等级的提升,房价收入比对农民工城市落户意愿的抑制作用逐渐减小。基于此,文章提出抑制城市房价上涨、提高农民工收入和福利水平、提供均等化的城市公共服务供给等政策建议,以期提高农民工城市落户意愿,推动城镇化高质量发展。

The core of new urbanization is the urbanization of agricultural transfer population.With the steady progress of the new round of household registration system reform,the institutional factors represented by household registration have gradually weakened the restrictions on migrant workers’urban settlements,and economic factors such as housing purchasing power have attracted attention.Based on 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey Data(CMDS2017)and housing price data of 285 cities across China,this paper studies the impact of housing affordability on the willingness of migrant workers to settle down in cities.Results show that,the increase of Price-to-income ratio significantly reduces the willingness of migrant workers to settle down in their residential cities,and this conclusion is still valid after considering the endogeneity and robustness.Mechanism analysis shows that,the rising Price-to-income ratio reduces migrant workers’willingness to settle down in the destination by increasing their perception of local housing difficulties,reducing their participation in social activities and damaging their subjective feelings of urban integration.Further individual heterogeneity shows that,the rising ratio of Price-to-income ratio has a greater inhibitory effect on the willingness to settle down in cities of the new generation,highly educated,local migrant workers without self-owned housing and migrant workers with family members.The analysis of urban heterogeneity shows that,the inhibitory effect of the ratio of Price-to-income ratio on the willingness of migrant workers to settle down in cities gradually decreases with the improvement of urban rank.Based on this,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions,such as restraining the rise of urban housing prices,improving the income and welfare level of migrant workers,and providing equal supply of urban public services,in order to improve the willingness of migrant workers to settle in cities and promote the high-quality development of urbanization.