基于GM(1,1)灰色预测模型的广西民营医院现状及发展趋势分析

Current status and development tendency analysis of Guangxi private hospitals based on the GM(1,1)grey prediction model

目的了解广西民营医院的现状,并通过GM(1,1)灰色预测模型分析广西民营医院在“十四五”期间的发展趋势。方法比较2013—2020年广西民营医院和公立医院的医院数量、床位数、医生数、护士数、诊疗人次数、入院人数。将上述指标作为发展指标,构建GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,分析“十四五”期间广西民营医院的发展趋势。结果2013—2020年,广西民营医院的医院数量、床位数、医生数、护士数、诊疗人次数、入院人数的年均增速均高于公立医院,但在全部医院中的占比仍较低。根据GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,预计在2021—2025年,除公立医院的医院数量外,广西民营医院和公立医院其余指标均呈持续增长的趋势,而且广西民营医院的年均增速普遍高于公立医院。结论广西民营医院的发展态势良好,规模不断扩大,医院数量等多项指标增速较快,但民营医院应将工作重心放在不断提高医疗质量上,进一步强化医疗能力,多渠道拓展医疗业务,开展差异化服务,提高群众的认可度。

Objective To understand the current status of Guangxi private hospitals,and to analyze the development tendency of Guangxi private hospitals during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period through the GM(1,1)grey prediction model.Methods The number of hospitals,number of beds,number of doctors,number of nurses,person-time of patient visits,and number of inpatients of private hospitals and public hospitals in Guangxi from 2013 to 2020 were compared.The aforementioned indices were used as the development indicators to construct the GM(1,1)grey prediction model,and to analyze the development tendency of private hospitals in Guangxi during the 14 th Five-Year Plan period.Results From 2013 to 2020,the growth rates of the number of hospitals,number of beds,number of doctors,number of nurses,person-time of patient visits,and number of inpatients of private hospitals in Guangxi were higher than those of public hospitals in Guangxi,but the proportion of private hospitals in all hospitals was still low.Accotding to the GM(1,1)grey prediction model,it was expected that from 2021 to 2025,except for the number of hospitals in public hospitals,the remaining indicators of private hospitals and public hospitals in Guangxi would depict a continuous growth trend,and the annual growth rate of private hospitals in Guangxi was generally higher than that of public hospitals in Guangxi.Conclusion The development of private hospitals in Guangxi is in a good momentum,with continuous expansion of scale and rapid growth of many indicators with respect to the number of hospitals,etc.Nonetheless,private hospitals should focus on improving the quality of medical care constantly,further strengthening medical capacity,expanding medical business through multiple channels,and developing differentiated services,which will help to improve the public′s recognition of private hospitals.