大国竞争与中国的现代化

Major Power Rivalry and China’s Modernization

现代化是近代以来人类社会的普遍现象,但每个国家的现代化道路因国情不同而各具特色,其中起决定性制约作用的是地缘战略、财政能力和政治认同这三个关键变量。大国的现代化道路首先取决于大国之间的地缘政治关系,而大国关系的主轴则是竞争而非合作或“搭便车”。提高大国的竞争力,意味着形成一个追求国家利益最大化且高度自主的地缘战略目标,维持可自我持续的经济增长机制和财政汲取能力,并且为了实现国家的战略目标和支撑国家的资源调控能力而打造一个获得广泛认同的社会政治基础。改革开放前30年与改革开放40余年以来,中国的地缘战略、财政能力和政治认同经历了根本性变革,从而形成了独具特色的现代化道路。重新界定中国作为一个崛起中的全球性大国的地缘战略,并形成与之相适应的财政汲取和政治认同机制,将形塑21世纪中国的现代化道路。

Modernization is a universal phenomenon of human society in modern times,though each country's path to modernization has their own characteristics due to different national conditions,among which three key variables of geostrategy,financial capacity and political identity play a decisive role.The modernization path of major powers depends firstly on their geopolitical relationship,while the relationship among major powers is dominated by competition rather than cooperation or"freeriding".To improve a major power's competitiveness means to develop a geostrategic goal to pursue the maximization of national interests and a high degree of autonomy,to maintain a self-sustainable economic development mechanism and state fiscal extractive capacity,and to lay a widely accepted socio-political foundation for achieving it strategic goals and supporting its resource regulation capacity.China's geostrategy,financial capacity and political identity have undergone fundamental changes in the three decades before reform and opening and the four decades after it,thus China's modernization path has been formed.Redefining China's geostrategy as a rising international major country and developing the state fiscal extractive and political identity mechanism will shape China's modernization path in the 21st century.