城镇居民生育意愿影响因素分析

Analysis of influencing factors of China's urban residents'fertility willingness

应用中国综合社会调查数据(CGSS2017),基于跨学科研究平台,利用广义线性方法,从实证分析的角度出发,试图找到在当前的经济社会环境下,影响城镇家庭生育意愿的主要决定因素.实证研究结果如下:相对于在企业工作(含自雇)的受访样本而言,在党政机关和事业单位工作的受访样本更倾向于多生孩子;相对于参加了基本养老保险的受访样本而言,没有参加基本养老保险的受访者更倾向于生孩子;针对女性子样本的研究表明,生育意愿被解释变量和女性受教育程度之间不存在显著的统计关系.并在实证研究的结果之上,给出了相应的政策建议.

This article uses the CGSS Data(CGSS2017),based on an interdisciplinary research platform,using a generalized linear method,and starting from the perspective of empirical analysis,to find the main determinants of urban families'willingness to bear children under the current economic and social environment.The empirical research results are as follows:Compared with the sample of respondents who work in enterprises(including self-employment),those who work in Party and government agencies and institutions are more inclined to have more children;compared to the sample who participated in the basic pension insurance,respondents who do not participate in the basic pension insurance are more inclined to have children;what is surprising is that the research on a sub-sample of women shows that there is no significant statistical relationship between the explanatory variable of the willingness to bear children and the education level of women.And based on the results of the empirical research,corresponding policy recommendations are given.