我国城乡居民基本养老保险运行效率的时空差异及动态演变

Spatial and temporal differences and dynamic evolution of the operational efficiency of basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents in China

基于2014—2020年我国31个省份(港澳台地区除外)的面板数据,采用熵权法、Dagum基尼系数分解方法和核密度估计法等,实证分析城乡居民基本养老保险运行效率的时空差异、区域差异和动态演变。研究发现:我国城乡居民基本养老保险运行效率存在显著的空间非均衡性,呈现出西部>中部>东部的分布特征;我国城乡居民基本养老保险运行效率的区域差异逐步扩大,东部地区的区域内差异是其主要影响因素;我国城乡居民基本养老保险运行效率整体呈现出下降趋势,但运行效率的绝对差异呈现出缩小趋势,其中,东部地区的区域内差异有所改善,中部地区的两极分化现象消失,西部地区的区域内差异逐步缩小,但出现了两级分化现象。据此提出,应进一步深化养老保险制度改革、制定区域差异化策略、完善社保基金扩充计划、开展参保人员扩面工作等,以提升我国城乡居民基本养老保险运行效率,进而推进社会保障均衡发展。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces(except Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)in China from 2014 to 2020,the entropy weight method,Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method and kernel density estimation method are used to empirically analyze the spatial and temporal differences,regional differences and dynamic evolution of the operational efficiency of basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents.It is found that:There is a significant spatial unbalance in the operational efficiency of basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents in China,showing the distribution characteristics of west>central>east.The regional differences in the operational efficiency of basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents in China have gradually expanded,and the intra-regional differences in the eastern region are the main influencing factors.The overall operational efficiency of basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents in China shows a decreasing trend,but the absolute difference in operational efficiency shows a decreasing trend.Among them,the intra-regional differences in the eastern region have improved;the polarization phenomenon in the central region has disappeared;the intra-regional differences in the western region have gradually narrowed,but the phenomenon of bifurcation has also appeared.Accordingly,it is proposed that the reform of the pension insurance system should be further deepened,regional differentiation strategies should be formulated,the plan to enrich the social security fund should be promoted,and the expansion of insured persons should be carried out,in order to improve the operational efficiency of the basic pension insurance for urban and rural residents and promote the balanced development of social security.