基于广义加性模型的调温负荷测算方法

Temperature Regulation Load Measurement Method Based on GAMs

调温负荷可分为夏季降温负荷和冬季取暖负荷,是影响统调负荷的主要因素之一。准确把握调温负荷特性,对于分析负荷增长驱动因素、做好迎峰度夏/冬工作具有重要意义,但现有测算方法仍存在问题。为此提出一种基于广义加性模型(generalized additive models,GAMs)的调温负荷测算方法。首先,建立基于GAMs的日前负荷预测模型;然后,根据上述模型解耦分析不同特征对负荷的影响,提出调温负荷测算方法;最后,以某市夏季调温负荷测算为例,验证所提方法的准确性、合理性。

Temperature regulation load can be divided into cooling load in summer and heating load in winter,which is one of the main factors affecting unified dispatching load.It is of great importance accurately well knowing the characteristics of temperature regulation load for analyzing the driving factors of load growth and successfully living through summer or winter.However,there are some problems in existing measuring and calculating methods.Therefore,this paper proposes a new measurement method based on generalized additive models(GAMs).First of all,it establishes a day-ahead load forecasting model based on GAMs.Then,based on the decoupling analysis of the above model,it analyzes the influence of different characteristics on the load and puts forward the measurement method.Finally,taking the measurement of summer temperature regulation load in a city as an example,it verifies the accuracy and rationality of the proposed method.