黄河流域用水量与经济增长脱钩及驱动机制研究

Research on the Decoupling of Water Consumption and Economic Growth in the Yellow River Basin and Its Driving Mechanism

为推进黄河流域水资源节约集约利用,构建Tapio模型和LMDI模型,测算了2000-2019年用水总量与经济增长的脱钩弹性,并分解了脱钩弹性的驱动因素。研究表明:1)黄河流域用水总量与经济增长弱脱钩和强脱钩相互交替;2)黄河流域各省份脱钩状态存在差异,青海、甘肃、内蒙古、陕西和山东具有弱脱钩和强脱钩2种状态,四川具有弱脱钩、强脱钩和扩张负脱钩3种状态,宁夏、山西和河南具有扩张负脱钩、增加连接、弱脱钩和强脱钩4种状态;3)黄河流域及各省份用水总量与经济增长脱钩的抑制因素依次是经济发展和人口规模,促进因素依次是用水强度和产业结构;4)产业结构和用水强度对脱钩弹性的贡献在三次产业内部存在较大的差异,产业结构调整、用水强度下降对脱钩的贡献都主要来源于第一产业。

In order to promote the conservation and intensive utilization of water resources in the Yellow River Basin,this paper built Tapio model and LMDI model,calculated the decoupling elasticity of total water consumption and economic growth during the period of 2000-2019,and decomposed the driving factors of the decoupling elasticity.The results show that a)the total water consumption and economic growth in the Yellow River Basin have experienced weak decoupling and strong decoupling alternately.b)The decoupling status of each prov⁃ince is different.Qinghai,Gansu,Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi and Shandong have two states of weak decoupling and strong decoupling.Sichuan has three states of weak decoupling,strong decoupling and expansion negative decoupling.Ningxia,Shanxi and Henan have four states of ex⁃pansion negative decoupling,increase connection,weak decoupling and strong decoupling.c)The restraining factors of the decoupling be⁃tween the total water consumption and economic growth in the Yellow River Basin and provinces are economic development and population size,and the promoting factors are water intensity and industrial structure.d)The contribution of industrial structure and water intensity to decoupling elasticity is quite different among the three industries,the contribution of industrial structure adjustment and water intensity de⁃cline to decoupling mainly comes from the primary industry.