灰色预测法在水资源管理中的应用综述

Review on the Application of Grey Prediction Theory in Water Resources Management

为总结灰色预测法在水资源管理中的应用,首先介绍了灰色预测法的基本内容,然后重点从水资源配置、水污染控制、水资源综合评价3个方面,梳理了灰色预测法的应用情况,分析了其各种改进形式的优缺点和适用性,总结了现有研究的不足之处:水量预测方面涉及再生水、外调水、淡化水以及第三产业用水的研究较少;水质预测方面的研究主要集中于化学类指标,其他类指标涉及较少;水资源评价相关研究中应用的模型相对单一。从模型方法改进及应用方向拓展两个角度,展望了灰色预测法在水资源管理中的应用前景。

In order to summarize the application of grey forecasting method in water resources management,this paper firstly introduced the basic content of grey forecasting method,then focused on three aspects of water resources allocation,water pollution control and comprehen⁃sive water resources assessment,sorted out the application of grey forecasting method and analyzed the advantages,disadvantages and appli⁃cability of various improvement forms.The shortcomings of the existing research were summarized as follows:there are few studies on water quantity forecasting in relation to recycled water,external water transfer,desalinated water and the tertiary industry water use;water quality forecasting is mainly focused on chemical indicators,with few other indicators being covered;and the models used in water resources assess⁃ment are relatively homogeneous.Finally,from the perspectives of both model improvement and application direction expansion,the develop⁃ment prospects of grey forecasting method in water resources management are presented.