哈萨克斯坦天然气市场新形势下中哈能源合作建议

Suggestions on China-Kazakhstan Energy Cooperation under the New Situation of Kazakhstan’s Natural Gas Market

哈萨克斯坦地处欧亚大陆中心地带,油气资源丰富,是中国能源贸易的重要伙伴,通过调研哈萨克斯坦近年来天然气市场情况,发现其国内供需关系骤变,在能源转型的背景下,其天然气出口战略将迅速调整,天然气出口将急剧缩减最终成为天然气净进口国,这将对中国天然气进口西北通道造成严重影响,而中国在碳达峰、碳中和目标下,将持续优化能源结构,未来对天然气、核燃料的需求增长强劲,消费量对外依存长期保持高位。同时,通过调研发现哈萨克斯坦可再生能源(水力、风力、太阳能)、铀矿的资源基础雄厚,潜力巨大,通过中哈合作抢占、扩大哈萨克斯坦相关产业发展先机,既符合哈萨克斯坦能源转型需求,也有利于抑制该国未来对天然气的需求,对于稳固中国天然气进口海外气源,维持天然气进口多元化格局,以及布局海外铀矿支持本国核电建设意义重大。

Kazakhstan located in the center of Eurasia,rich in oil and gas resources,and is an important partner of China’s energy cooperation.According to the research on the natural gas market in Kazakhstan in recent years,it is found that the domestic supply and demand relationship has changed dramatically.In the context of energy transformation,the natural gas export strategy will be adjusted rapidly for a long time,and the natural gas export will shrink sharply and eventually become a net importer of natural gas,It will have a serious impact on the Northwest Passage of China's natural gas import,and China’s energy system will continue to optimize energy resource structure under the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization.In the future,the demand for natural gas and nuclear fuel will grow strongly,and the consumption will remain high for a long time.At the same time,through research,it is believed that Kazakhstan has a strong resource base and huge potential for renewable energy(hydropower,wind power,solar energy)and uranium mining.Through China Kazakhstan cooperation,China could seize and expand the development opportunities of rele⁃vant industries in Kazakhstan,which is not only in line with Kazakhstan's energy transformation needs,but also conducive to curbing the country’s future demand for natural gas.For the purpose of stabilizing China’s natural gas imports from overseas sources and maintaining the diversified pattern of natural gas imports,it is of great significance to arrange overseas uranium mines to support domestic nuclear power construction.