基于DPSIR模型的宁夏地区水土资源承载力评价

Evolution of Water and Soil Resources Carrying Capacity in Ningxia Based on DPSIR Model

为全面掌握宁夏地区水土资源承载力情况,促进干旱半干旱地区水土资源协调发展,基于DPSIR模型构建评价指标体系,采用CRITIC-熵权-TOPSIS评价2012-2019年宁夏地区水土资源承载力,并运用障碍度模型及R/S法探究其影响因素及预测未来趋势。结果表明,2012-2019年,整个宁夏地区水土资源承载力呈上升趋势,但整体基本处于超载状态,而固原市是宁夏地区中水土资源承载力最好者;从障碍度分析,驱动力子系统对宁夏地区水土资源承载力的制约最强,经济密度、人口自然增长率、人均GDP、单位耕地粮食产出、人均水资源量是影响宁夏地区水土资源承载力的主要因素;根据R/S法,在未来宁夏地区水土资源承载力呈上升趋势,固原市、中卫市上升趋势显著,而其他市上升趋势较弱。

The paper aims to comprehensively grasp the carrying capacity of water and soil resources in Ningxia,and promotes the coordinated development of water and soil resources in arid and semi-arid areas.An evaluation index system was constructed based on DPSIR model.The CRITIC-entropy weight-TOPSIS was applied to evaluate the carrying capac-ity of water and soil resources in Ningxia from 2012 to 2019.The obstacle degree model and R/S method were used to ex-plore the influencing factors and predict the future trend.The results showed that from 2012 to 2019,the carrying capaci-ty of water and soil resources in the whole Ningxia region shows an upward trend,but the overall situation is basically o-verloaded.The carrying capacity in Guyuan City is greatest in the Ningxia region.Based on the obstacle analysis,the driving force subsystem has the strongest restriction on the carrying capacity of water and soil resources in Ningxia.Eco-nomic density,natural population growth rate,per capita GDP,grain output per unit of arable land and per capita water resources are the main factors affecting the water and soil resources carrying capacity in Ningxia.According to the R/S method,in the future,the water and soil resources carrying capacity in Ningxia will show an upward trend.Guyuan and Zhongwei have a significant upward trend,while other cities have a weak upward trend.