船舶进水条件下的人员疏散风险评估

Risk Assessment of Evacuation under the Condition of Ship Flooding

为降低船舶进水环境下的人员应急疏散风险,提高船舶总布置设计的安全性,基于SOLAS2020概率破损稳性计算方法确定船舶进水危险区域,根据国家海事总局公布的碰撞事故报告数据,采用蒙特卡罗法对船舶破口形状和位置进行抽样,确定风险分析场景,采用计算流体动力学进水数值模拟与人员疏散仿真耦合的方法评估风险后果,构建一种船舶进水条件下的人员疏散风险评估方法。以某大型船舶为例开展船舶进水环境下的人员应急疏散量化风险分析,结果发现,根据风险评估结果,通过增加分舱指数A修正水平舱壁纵向布置位置,可降低应急风险,提升船舶总体设计的安全性。

In order to reduce the risk of emergency evacuation in ship water environment and improve the safety of general layout design.Based on the SOLAS 2020 probabilistic damage stability calculation method,the dangerous area of ship water entry is determined.According to the collision accident report data published by the State Maritime Administration,the Monte Carlo method is used to sample the shape and position of the ship breach to determine the risk analysis scene.The risk consequences are evaluated by the coupling method of CFD water entry numerical simulation and evacuation simulation,and a risk assessment method for evacuation under ship water entry conditions is constructed.Taking a large ship as an example,the quantitative risk analysis of personnel emergency evacuation in the water environment of the ship is carried out.It is found that according to the risk assessment results,the emergency risk can be reduced and the safety of the overall design can be improved by increasing the subdivision index A and correcting the longitudinal layout position of the horizontal bulkhead.