跨境系统性金融风险防范研究——基于汇率风险规避视角

Research on the Prevention of Cross-border Systemic Financial Risks——Based on the Perspective of Exchange Rate Risk Aversion

在我国汇率制度改革的大背景下,汇率风险规避在对外经济交往中的重要性日益凸显。本文构建了汇率-系统性金融风险联动模型,揭示了汇率风险通过利率变动而引致系统性金融风险跨国传导的机制。汇率风险的规避方法经历了从内部实体经济增强盈利能力、调整业务结构到借助于外部金融体系的嬗变;而金融体系的避险手段则由金融市场上的原生产品向衍生产品如期货、期权、掉期演进。发达外汇衍生品市场的创建可有效抑制汇率风险引致的系统性金融风险跨国传导,这就要求在外汇衍生品市场中研发新品种、引入金融科技及促进离在岸市场的联动性等。

Under the background of the reform of exchange rate system in our country,the importance of avoiding exchange rate risk is becoming more and more obvious.This paper constructs an exchange rate-systemic financial risk linkage model and reveals the cross-border transmission mechanism of exchange rate risk through interest rate changes.The method of avoiding exchange rate risk has changed from enhancing profi t ability,adjusting business structure within the entity economy to relying on external financial system.And the risk-averse means in financial system evolutes from the original products to derivatives such as futures,options,swaps in the financial market.The construction of developed foreign exchange derivatives market can restrain effectively the cross-border transmission of systemic financial risk caused by exchange rate risk,which requires the development of new varieties in the foreign exchange derivatives market,the introduction of financial technology and the promotion of linkages between the off shore and onshore market.