欠发达流域县域经济时空差异演变及其影响因素——以云南澜沧江流域为例

The evolution and influencing factors of the temporal and spatial differences of county economy in less developed river basin:Taking the Lancang River Basin in Yunnan Province as an example

以澜沧江流域县域为研究基本单元,以人均GDP为测度指标,综合运用数理统计分析与探索性空间数据分析方法(ESDA)相结合,对1998—2018年澜沧江流域县域经济差异的时空格局进行研究分析,同时通过地理加权回归探究其影响因素的空间异质性。结果表明,20年间澜沧江流域县域经济发展绝对差异呈不断扩大趋势,相对差异呈波动下降的轨迹,区域经济水平差异明显;澜沧江流域县域经济存在明显的空间相关性,但空间相关性随时间呈现波动变化,经济关联性较弱;县域经济空间分异特征明显,存在明显的时空演变特征,显著“低-低”集聚区位于研究区西南和西北地区部分县域,“高-高”集聚区仅包含大理市和宾川县2个县域;社会-自然双重压力对澜沧江流域县域经济发展起到严重制约作用。

Taking the counties of the Lancang River Basin as the basic unit of the research and the GDP per capita as the measurement index,a combination of mathematical statistical analysis and exploratory spatial data analysis(ESDA)was used to study and analyze the temporal and spatial patterns of economic differences in the counties of the Lancang River Basin from 1998 to 2018,and at the same time the spatial heterogeneity of its influencing factors through geographically weighted regression was explored.The results showed that the absolute difference in the economic development of the counties in the Lancang River Basin had shown an expanding trend in the past two decades,the relative differences had fluctuated and declined,and the differences in regional economic levels had been obvious;the county economy of the Lancang River Basin had obvious spatial correlation,but the spatial correlation fluctuated with time,and the economic correlation was weak;the county economy had obvious spatial differentiation characteristics,and there were obvious characteristics of temporal and spatial evolution.The significant“low-low”agglomeration area was located in the south⁃west and northwestern part of the study area,and the“high-high”agglomeration area only included two counties of Dali City and Bin⁃chuan County.The dual pressure of society and nature restricted the economic development of the Lancang River Basin.