农业机械化水平对粮食产量的影响研究——基于粮食播种面积的中介效应

Study on the effect of agricultural mechanization level on grain yield:Based on the intermediary effect of grain sown area

以省(市)各年份农业机械总动力为解释变量,粮食播种面积为中介变量,粮食产量为被解释变量,并选取影响较大的农村人口数所占比例、农用化肥施用量、塑料薄膜使用量、有效灌溉面积、农用柴油使用量和农水林事物费用为控制变量,运用SPSS 23.0软件对2007—2019年全国省际面板数据进行实证研究。结果表明,农用机械总动力和粮食播种面积均对粮食总产量产生显著的正向影响;粮食播种面积在农业机械总动力和粮食产量之间起到完全中介作用。据此提出通过多元化拓展创新渠道提高农业机械化水平及其运用效果,促进粮食种植面积扩大、粮食生产效率提高、粮食产量增加和质量效益提升的对策建议。

The total power of agricultural machinery in each province(city)year was taken as the explanatory variable,the grain sown area was used as the intermediary variable,the grain output was used as the explained variable,the proportion of rural population,amount of agricultural fertilizer application,plastic film use,effective irrigation area,amount of agricultural diesel use and expenses on agriculture,water conservance and forestry were selected as control variables,and the national interprovincial panel data from 2007 to 2019 were studied using SPSS 23.0 software.The results showed that the total power of agricultural machinery and the grain sown area had significant positive effects on the total grain output;the grain sown area played a complete intermediary role between the total power of agricultural machinery and the grain yield.Accordingly,countermeasures and suggestions were put forward to improve the level of agricultural mechanization and its application effect,promote the expansion of grain planting area,improve grain produc⁃tion efficiency,increase grain output and improve quality and efficiency through diversified expansion of innovation channels.