2022—2023年东盟国家经济的分析与展望

An Analysis and Prospect of ASEAN Economies in 2022-2023

在全球新冠疫情和经济动荡叠加的背景下,2022年东盟国家经济仍保持了持续复苏的态势,一些国家经济增速超出官方的预期。为加快促进国内经济复苏,东盟国家适时调整了宏观经济政策,实行了扩张性财政政策,提高利率以减缓通货膨胀压力,加大基础设施建设力度,推动产业和企业转型升级,促进中小企业融入全球价值链。同时,近年来东盟国家纷纷推出数字经济转型战略与政策,推进产业数字化和数字产业化,为各国经济复苏提供了新动能。2023年,世界经济面临着“滞胀”的风险,主要经济体经济增长处于下行通道,东盟国家经济仍将保持持续复苏的态势,但也存在不稳定和不确定的因素。

Against the background of the overlapping global pandemic and economic turbulence,the world economy recovered slowly in 2022,while the economies of ASEAN countries will continue to recover,and their eco⁃nomic growth will exceed the official expectations.In order to accelerate the domestic economic recovery,ASEAN countries adjusted their macroeconomic policies in due time,implemented expansionary fiscal policies,raised inter⁃est rates to reduce inflation pressure,increased infrastructure construction,promoted enterprise transformation and industry upgrading,and boosted the integration of small and medium-sized enterprises into the global value chain.In recent years,they have launched digital economic transformation strategies and policies to promote industrial digitization and digital industrialization,providing new impetus for their economic recovery.In 2023,the world economy is facing the risk of"stagflation".The economic growth of major economies is on a downward path.The economies of ASEAN countries will continue to recover,but there are also unstable and uncertain factors.