基于组合赋权的电缆风险评估可视化

Cable risk assessment visualization based on combination weighting

本文提出一种基于组合赋权法的电缆风险评估方法,对电缆当前运行状态进行风险评估,根据评估结果设定相应的预警等级并给予反馈,同时将风险等级进行可视化展示。首先,选取影响电缆运行状态的指标建立风险评估体系。其次,建立电缆在不同运行状态下的状态量数值基准范围;根据电缆运行实时数据与不同运行状态下状态量数值基准范围的比较,计算电缆属于某种状态的可能性,构成模糊评判矩阵;采用组合赋权法确定各状态量对于各故障状态的权重,将权重代入模糊评判矩阵得到基于最大隶属度原则的最终评判矩阵。然后,采用专家打分的方式对电缆不同故障状态所造成后果的严重性进行打分。最后,基于专家打分及故障发生概率,计算电缆当前运行状态的风险值,对电缆进行风险等级评估,并将风险预警等级可视化。所提方法能够实现电缆风险等级评估及可视化,可对当前风险等级可能发生的情况进行预测并提出预防建议。

In this paper,a cable risk assessment method that employs a combination weighting approach is proposed for evaluating the risk associated with the present operational condition of the cable.Based on the assessment findings,the corresponding warning level is set and feedback is given,and the risk level is visualized.First,the indicators that affect the operating status of the cable are selected to establish a risk assessment system.Secondly,the reference range of the state value of the cable under different operating conditions is established.Thirdly,according to the comparison between the real-time data of cable operation and the reference range of state quantity under different operating conditions,the possibility that the cable belongs to a certain state is calculated,and the fuzzy evaluation matrix is formed.Fourthly,the combination weighting methodology is utilized to determine the relative importance of each state variable in the context of different fault states.The resulting weights are subsequently incorporated into the fuzzy evaluation matrix,yielding the final evaluation matrix based on the principle of maximum membership degree.Then,the severity of the consequences caused by different fault states of the cable is scored by expert scoring.Finally,based on the expert's scoring and the probability of failure,the current operating risk value of the cable is calculated,the risk level of the cable is evaluated,and the risk warning level is visualized.The proposed method can evaluate the risk level of the cable,visualize the risk level,predict the possible occurrence of the current risk level and give preventive suggestions.