基于空间计量交互模型的人才流动影响因素研究——以中国“双一流”高校毕业生为例

Talent migration and its influencing factors using spatial econometric interaction model:A case study of China's"double first-class"university graduates

当前,中国进入由“人口红利”向“人才红利”转变的阶段,人才日益成为知识经济时代国家与区域发展的关键驱动力。高校毕业生作为人才的后备军,已然成为城市“抢人大战”的主要争夺目标。基于2019年中国“双一流”高校《毕业生就业质量报告》数据,运用空间统计分析及空间计量交互模型,剖析“双一流”高校毕业生就业流动格局及其影响因素。研究结果发现:①“一流大学”和“一流学科”高校毕业生就业地选择呈现“东密西疏”的不均衡分布格局,且“一流大学”毕业生就业地区更加集聚。②经济因素仍是影响“双一流”高校毕业生就业流动的核心因素,但地方品质因素对毕业生就业流动的影响也不容忽视。相对而言,地方品质因素对“一流大学”毕业生就业流动的影响更强。此外,政策因素对两类毕业生就业流动也具有显著的影响。③毕业生就业迁移流之间存在显著的网络自相关效应,基于就学地、就业地的网络自相关效应显著为正,基于就学地—就业地的网络自相关效应显著为负,对高校毕业生就业不均衡的分布格局产生一定影响。研究结果揭示了区域人才政策的制定需要实现从单一区域视角向多区域协调视角的转变,对进一步优化区域人才治理具有参考意义。

China has entered the stage of transformation from a"demographic dividend"to a"talent dividend",and talent has increasingly become the key driver of national and regional development in the era of a knowledge economy.As the reserve of talents,university graduates are the main target of the"war for talent"among Chinses cities.Based on the 2019 Graduate Employment Quality Reports of China's"double first-class"universities,adopting the Gini coefficient,spatial autocorrelation,and spatial econometric interaction model,this paper demonstrates the migration pattern of"double first-class"university graduates upon their graduation and investigates its underlying influencing factors.The results reveal that the destination areas of university graduates from"first-class universities"and"first-class disciplines"are highly concentrated in eastern China,with the former showing a higher concentration level.While economic factors still play a vital role in determining the migration of university graduates,the influence of quality of place is also significant,especially for graduates from"first-class universities".In addition,the policy factors also significantly influence the migration pattern of graduates from both types of universities.There are significant network autocorrelation effects among graduates'employment migration flows.The network autocorrelation effects based on places of study and places of employment are significantly positive.These network autocorrection effects reinforce the uneven distribution pattern of university graduates'migration.This study highlights the importance of employing a regional coordination perspective rather than a single-region perspective in terms of the formation and further optimization of regional talent policies.