长江经济带物流-经济-环境系统耦合协调度评价及时空效应

Evaluation of the Coupling Coordination Degree of the Logistics-economy-environment System in the Yangtze River Economic Belt and Its Spatiotemporal effects

长江经济带作为重大国家战略发展区域,物流业的高速发展对推动其经济高质量发展提供了强大助力。与此同时,物流业与经济的快速发展也对长江经济带绿色发展带来了一定影响。通过构建长江经济带物流-经济-环境系统(简称长江经济带LEES)耦合协调度评价模型,基于长江经济带11个省(直辖市)2011—2021年面板数据,对其耦合协调度进行实证分析,并运用变异系数法、探索性空间分析法对其耦合发展时空效应进行研究。结果显示:长江经济带LEES耦合协调水平整体呈上升趋势,区域差异则呈现出由大到小的变化趋势。其中,全局空间自相关分析发现,长江经济带各省份LEES耦合协调水平存在正向的全局空间自相关性,但其空间集聚现象不断减弱,区域间差异越来越小;局部空间自相关分析发现,长江经济带区域LEES耦合协调水平局部空间自相关性逐年下降,且随着时间的推移,正向作用开始减弱,负向作用开始增强。因此,应结合长江经济带实际情况,逐步完善长江经济带LEES耦合协调发展的互动作用和良性价值循环机制,积极推动长江经济带区域经济协同创新发展,加大物流基础设施建设的投入力度,加快环境规章制度的制定与落实,同时加强各省级政府的统领引导作用,共同推动长江经济带LEES耦合协调发展。

As a major national strategic development area,the rapid development of the logistics industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has received a great impetus to promote the high-quality development of its economy.At the same time,the rapid development of the logistics industry and economy also has a bad influence on the green development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.Based on the panel data of 11 provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities directly under the Central Government)in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2011 to 2021,the authors conduct an evaluation model of the logistics-economy-environment system(LEES)coupling coordination degree to carry out the empirical analysis on its coupling coordination degree.The spatiotemporal effects of LEES coupling coordination development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt are analyzed using the methods of coefficient of variation and exploratory spatial analysis.The results show that the LEES coupling coordination development level of the Yangtze River Economic Belt maintains an upward trend,and the regional differences show a changing trend from large to small.Among them,the global spatial autocorrelation analysis finds that the LEES coupling coordination level of provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has a positive global spatial autocorrelation,its spatial clustering phenomenon has been weakening,and the inter-regional differences have become smaller and smaller;and t he local spatial autocorrelation analysis shows that the local spatial autocorrelation of LEES couplingcoordination level in the Yangtze River Economic Belt region decreases year by year,and over time,the positive effect has begun to weaken,while the negative influence has begun to strengthen.Therefore,based on the actual situation of the Yangtze River Economic Belt,it is necessary to gradually improve and create the interactive role and virtuous value cycle mechanism of the coupling and coordinated development of LEES in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,actively promote the coordinated and innovative development of the regional economy in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,increase investment in logistics infrastructure construction,and accelerate the formulation and implementation of environmental regulations and systems,and strengthen the government's leading and guiding role at the same time to jointly promote the LESS coupled and coordinated development of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.