GIS支持下绿洲生态敏感性研究——以伊犁河谷为例

Ecological sensitivity study of oasis supported by GIS:a case study of Yili river valley

为探索绿洲生态环境保护方法,解决绿洲生态环境与社会经济发展的矛盾,本文选取7项生态敏感性评价因子,结合层次分析法和均方差决策法确定各因子权重,对伊犁河谷生态敏感性进行评价分析;选取4项社会经济指标,利用莫兰指数进行空间自相关性分析,研究伊犁河谷生态敏感性与社会经济的相关性。结果表明:①海拔因子和植被因子对伊犁河谷生态敏感性影响最强烈。②伊犁河谷生态敏感性总体适中,主要受垂直地带性影响,敏感性与海拔、坡度呈正相关关系;受自然环境影响,敏感性与水体和植被呈负相关关系。③伊犁河谷生态敏感性与社会经济呈负空间相关性。研究生态敏感性与社会经济的相关性,为未来伊犁河谷生态保护、国土空间规划、社会经济发展等提供了一定的理论指导和参考。

In order to explore the protection methods of oasis ecological environment and solve the contradiction between oasis ecological environment and social and economic development,this paper selects seven ecological sensitivity evaluation factors,combines with analytic hierarchy process and mean square error decision method to determine the weight of each factor,and evaluates and analyzes the ecological sensitivity of Yili river valley.Then,four social and economic indicators are selected to analyze the correlation between ecological sensitivity and social economy in Yili river valley through spatial autocorrelation analysis using Moran index.The results show that:①Altitude factors and vegetation factors have the strongest impact on ecological sensitivity in the Yili river valley.②The ecological sensitivity of Yili river valley is moderate in general,mainly affected by vertical zonality,and has a positive correlation with altitude and slope.Affected by natural environment,sensitivity is negatively correlated with water and vegetation.③There is a negative spatial correlation between ecological sensitivity and social economy in Yili river valley.The research on the correlation between ecological sensitivity and social economy provides certain theoretical guidance and reference for the future ecological protection,territorial space planning and social and economic development of Yili river valley.