基于出行特征的汽车客运站最高聚集人数测算研究

Calculation of the Maximum Number of People Gathered at Passenger Stations Based on Travel Characteristics

为实现汽车客运站最高聚集人数的准确测算,在现有客运站最高聚集人数研究成果基础上,进一步探索出行特征与旅客到站时间之间的影响机理,针对同一车站不同发车环境下的班车旅客到站时间倾向性进行统计分析,认为旅客因出行特征的不同,其到站时间存在明显差异;在保证数据获取便捷的基础上选取5个出行特征对旅客到站时间进行预测;进而构建考虑旅客到站时间差异的车站最高聚集人数计算模型,并以重庆陈家坪汽车站为例进行案例分析,验证了方法的有效性。

In order to achieve the accurate calculation of the maximum number of people gathered at bus terminals,on the basis of the current research results of the maximum number of people gathered at passenger stations,the influence mechanism between the travel characteristics and the arrival time of passengers was further explored.Statistical analysis was conducted on the arrival time propensity of shuttle bus passengers under different departure environments at the same station,and it was found that passengers had significant differences in their arrival time due to different travel characteristics.On the basis of ensuring convenient data acquisition,five travel characteristics were selected to predict the arrival time of passengers.Furthermore,a calculation model for the maximum number of people gathered at a station considering the difference in passenger arrival time was constructed.Taking Chongqing Chenjiaping Bus Station as an example for case study,the effectiveness of the proposed method was verified.