冷战早期美以核领域演化博弈分析

Nuclear Evolutionary Gamean Analysis Between America and Israel in the Early Cold War

[研究目的]众所周知,以色列长期实行核模糊策略,从未公开承认也未公开否认其拥有核武器,但一些资料和研究显示,其早在20世纪60年代中后期就成为了一个事实上的拥有核武器国家。由于核问题的敏感性,外界仍然难以掌握其核心情报信息,那么从50年代开始至今,以色列为何敢于无视外部尤其是美国方面的压力而执意推进核计划,这是一个重要但缺乏系统研究的问题,其中机理和决策过程值得深入研究。[研究方法]该文旨在通过查询相关公开的信息资料,还原当时背景下美国以色列双方互动过程,尝试利用演化博弈方法对美国与以色列当时围绕以色列核计划所进行的博弈建立模型。通过建立演化博弈模型,讨论博弈的各种结局所需要的参数条件,说明以色列拥核的决策过程和方法路径。[研究结论]通过模型推演美以之间围绕以色列推进核计划所进行的互动博弈过程,从而可以对以色列核模糊稳定策略给出合理性解释。

[Research purpose]As is known to all,Israel has long carried out the nuclear ambiguity strategy,never publicly admitted or denied its possession of nuclear weapons,but some data and research show that it became a fact nuclear weapon state as early as the middle and late 1960s.Due to the sensitivity of the nuclear issue,it is still difficult for the outside world to grasp its core intelligence information.Therefore,since the 1950s,why Israel dared to ignore the external pressure,especially the United States,and insisted on pushing forward its nuclear program is an important but poorly researched question,and its mechanism and decision-making process are worth further study.[Research method]The purpose of this study is to restore the interaction process between the United States and Israel under the background of relevant public information,and try to establish a model of the game between the United States and Israel around Israel's nuclear program by using the evolutionary game method.Through the establishment of an evolutionary game model,the parameters and conditions required for various outcomes of the game are discussed,and the decision-making process and methods of Israel possessing nuclear weapons are explained.[Research conclusion]Through the model,the interactive game process between the United States and Israel around Israel's nuclear program can be deduced,so as to give a reasonable explanation for Israel's nuclear fuzzy stability strategy.