基于2-可加测度与TODIM的突发事件应急群决策

Emergency Group Decision Making Based on 2-Additive Fuzzy Measure and TODIM

[研究目的]针对突发事件应急决策过程中,决策者表现出的参照依赖和损失规避心理倾向,决策属性间的多种关联与交互,以及决策专家间的领域知识互补与冗余等问题,提出基于2-可加模糊测度与TODIM的突发事件应急群决策模型。[研究方法]引入直觉模糊数表征决策属性的不确定信息;利用2-可加测度刻画决策属性之间的关联与交互,以及不同专家组合的决策权重;考虑应急决策过程中的有限理性行为特征,运用TODIM方法对备选方案各属性下的优劣势进行两两比较,以计算相对损益值。进而构建损益感知函数矩阵,求出备选方案相对于其他方案的综合感知函数值,以优选应急预案。[研究结论]通过新冠疫情应急管控现实案例,验证该模型的合理性和有效性,为突发事件应急决策提供参考。

[Research purpose]In view of the psychological tendency of reference dependence and loss avoidance of the decision makers in emergencies,the multiple associations and interactions between decision attributes,and the complementarity and redundancy of domain knowledge among decision experts in the process of emergency decision-making,a group decision-making model for emergency response based on 2-additive fuzzy measure and TODIM is proposed.[Research method]Intuitive fuzzy numbers are introduced to represent the uncertain information of decision attributes;2-additive measure is used to describe the correlation and interaction between decision attributes and the decision weights of different expert combinations;Considering the bounded rational behavior characteristics in the emergency decision-making process,the TODIM method is used to compare the advantages and disadvantages of each attribute of the alternatives to calculate the relative profit and loss value.Then,the gain and loss perception function matrix is constructed,and the comprehensive perception function value of alternative schemes relative to other schemes is calculated to optimize the emergency plan.[Research conclusion]The rationality and effectiveness of the model are verified through the actual case of emergency management and control of COVID-19 epidemic,providing reference for emergency decision-making.