1961—2021年晋南苹果生长期气象灾害气候变化特征

Climatic characteristics of meteorological disasters for the apple production in southern Shanxi from 1961—2021

利用1961—2021年晋南苹果主产区的逐日气温、降水量、日照时数等气象观测资料,分析了晋南苹果气象灾害的气候特征,主要分析了花期冻害、花期高温、膨大期高温和干旱、成熟期连阴雨以及冰雹的发生频次、极值的气候变化趋势。结果表明:1961—2021年晋南苹果花期冻害呈减轻趋势,极端最低气温在1996年出现突变,呈显著上升趋势;最近20年晋南苹果花期高温热害显著增多。膨大期高温热害呈加重趋势,近20年不仅高温日数明显增多,极端高温也出现多发态势;膨大期干旱趋势加重,2005—2018年是干旱最严重时期,连续无降水日数在1995年发生突变,之后为显著增多趋势。成熟期雨日增多、日照时数明显减少,连阴雨灾害发生趋势加重。近60年冰雹呈减少趋势,1994年开始冰雹灾害趋势减轻。近20年在气候变暖、干旱化背景下,晋南地区极端高温、强降水频发,苹果高温热害、干旱及秋季连阴雨灾害趋势加重;花期冻害和冰雹灾害趋势减轻。

Based on the daily records of the observational air temperature,the precipitation and the sunshine duration from 1961 to 2021,climatic characteristics of meteorological disasters for the apple production,which includes the freezing damages,the frequencies and the extreme values of extreme high temperature,the droughts,the continuous rain and the hail events,were analyzed in south Shanxi Province.The results show that,for the apple bloom stage,the disasters of freezing damages was reduced from 1961 to 2021,and the extreme minimum temperature showed a significant upward trend from 1961 to 2021 and abruptly changed in 1996;the disasters of the high temperature increased significantly in recent 20 years.For the fruit expansion stage,the disasters of the high temperature became more severe.In recent 20 years,both the number of hot days and the occurrence of extreme high temperatures increased obviously;the droughts increased and were most severe from 2005 to 2018.Although the number of continuous days without precipitation increased and abruptly changed in 1995.For the fruits mature period,the sunshine duration decreased obviously,and the risk of continuous rain disasters increased.In recent 20 years,the hail events showed a decreasing trend and the risk of the hail to the apple production was also decreased since 1994.Under the background of the global warming and the aridification,the extreme high temperature and heavy precipitation events occurred more frequently in southern Shanxi,and the risk of the heat damages,the droughts and the autumn floods to the apple production increased in recent 20 years.