房地产长效机制稳定房价了吗

Does the Long-term Real Estate Mechanism Stabilize Housing Prices?

在构建中央政府与地方政府的多任务委托代理模型和基于预期的供需模型的基础上,本文采用RDiT和强度DID模型,实证分析了中国房地产长效机制稳定房价的效应及其影响机制与路径。从理论上提出以下假设:房地产长效机制下,地方政府对房地产税收的依赖程度,会影响其在房地产部门的资源配置,从而影响房价波动;政策不确定性通过宏观经济和房地产市场,以及地方政府对房地产税收的依赖,对房价预期进而对房价波动产生影响。实证结果验证了本文的理论假设。从短期来看,房地产长效机制不仅使负向偏离均衡的房价回归到均衡水平,也使房价波动幅度大幅减小;从动态来看,长效机制对房价的正向提升作用显著且具有持续性。从区域来看,长效机制对中西部城市的影响更为显著,而对东部一二线城市的影响并不明显。长效机制对房价的影响机制与路径分析表明,房地产长效机制下,政策不确定性是推动房价波动的显著力量,地方政府对房地产税收的依赖程度正向促进了其对房价的影响,相对而言,房地产税收依赖度越高,长效机制对房价的影响越为显著;政策不确定性的存在,使预期成为影响房价的重要路径,地方政府的政策执行强度对供需双方的房价预期具有明显的负向影响,而政策不确定性通过影响供需双方的房价预期对房价起着显著的正向促进作用。

Based on building a multi-task principal-agent model between the central government and local governments and an expectation-based supply-demand model,this article empirically analyses the effect of long-term real estate mechanism in China to stabilize housing prices,and its mechanism and path by applying the RDiT and intensity DID models.Theoretically,the following hy⁃potheses are proposed:the degree of local governments'reliance on real estate taxation under the long-term real estate mechanism af⁃fects their resource allocation in the real estate sector and thus housing price volatility;policy uncertainty has an impact on expected house prices and thus housing price volatility through macroeconomic and real estate markets,as well as local governments'reliance on real estate taxation.The empirical results verify the theoretical hypothesis of this paper.In the short run,the long-run mechanism not only returns the negatively deviated house prices to the equilibrium level,but also significantly reduces the housing price volatility.In the dynamic view,the positive effect of the long-run mechanism on house prices is significant and sustainable.As to the analysis of the mechanism and path of of the long-term efficiency mechanism on housing prices,policy uncertainty is a significant force driving housing price fluctuations under the long-term real estate mechanism.The dependence of local governments on real estate taxation positive⁃ly contributes to its impact on housing prices.Relatively speaking,the higher the dependence on real estate taxation,the more signifi⁃cant the impact of the long-term efficiency mechanism on housing prices.Because of the existence of policy uncertainty,expectations is an important path to influence housing prices.The local governments’policy implementation intensity has a significant negative ef⁃fect on housing price expectations for both supply and demand.Furthermore,with above effect,policy uncertainty plays a significant positive role in promoting housing prices.