人民币国际化与国际旅游发展:货币循环视角

Interaction between RMB Internationalization and International Tourism Development:A Monetary Circulation Perspective

从货币循环的视角,构建人民币国际化与国际旅游交互作用模型,揭示了人民币参与国际旅游经济循环的过程以及国际旅游在人民币国际化进程中发挥的重要作用。文章进而以与中国签订人民币直接交易协定的10个“一带一路”国家作为实验组,其他49个国家为对照组,采集2002-2019年相关数据,使用倾向得分匹配-双重差分法(PSM-DID)检验人民币直接交易政策对于出入境旅游的影响,并计算其路径效应和社会福利增量。研究表明:人民币国际化可直接促进中国出入境旅游的发展,同时通过进出口贸易对国际旅游形成间接拉动效应,且贸易引致的间接效应显著大于人民币国际化对出入境旅游的直接效应,说明人民币国际化更多地利好因商贸往来而引致的出入境旅游。人民币国际化以不对称的方式影响出境和入境旅游需求。签订人民币直接结算协议后,实验组国家访华旅游人次平均上升了0.012%,而其接待的中国出境旅游人次平均上升了0.089%;人民币国际化对出境旅游的促进作用更显著。国际旅游作为人民币国际化的重要应用场景和渠道,有助于增强人民币计价结算和计价交易功能,缓解离岸人民币流动性过高风险,为人民币国际化增添新动能和抗风险机制。人民币国际化极大地增进了社会净福利,对于推动中国式现代化,构建国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局具有重要战略意义。中国需要确立基于入境旅游的币缘发展战略,推动贸易友好国入境旅游,加快制定与签订人民币直接交易协定的国家间的互免签证政策,为疫情后国际交往复苏以及推进人民币国际化做好准备。

This paper proposes a theoretical model reflecting the interactions between RMB internationalization and international tourism development from the perspective of Monetary Capital Circulation.By analyzing carefully the circulating process of RMB in Chinese inbound and outbound tourism under the background of direct RMB transaction policy,it reveals the important role that international tourism plays in the progress of RMB internationalization.The paper further collects a panel data of 106 countries along the"One-Belt-One-Road"(B&R)that have signed direct RMB transactions with China from 2002 to 2019,and uses PSM-DID approach to test the direct and indirect impacts of RMB direct transactions policy on the growth of Chinses inbound and outbound tourism.The effects of RMB internationalization caused by inbound and outbound tourism have also been estimated.The research finds:(1)RMB internationalization has significantly contributed to the increase of inbound and outbound tourism in China.It also has an indirect pull effect on international tourism through import and export trade.RMB internationalization is more beneficial to inbound and outbound tourism due to trade transactions.(2)RMB internationalization affects the demand for inbound and outbound tourism in an asymmetric way.Other things being equal,after signing the RMB direct settlement agreement,the number of inbound tourists visiting China from the experimental countries increased by 0.012%,and the number of outbound tourists from China to these countries increased by 0.089%.(3)International tourism,as an important application scenario and channel for RMB internationalization,could help deepen the functions of RMB pricing settlement and pricing transactions,alleviate the risk of excessive offshore RMB liquidity,and add new momentum and anti-risk mechanisms to RMB internationalization.(4)RMB internationalization enhances social welfare.It is strategically important for promoting international tourism and building a new development pattern of mutual promotion of domestic and international double circulation.China needs to design a tourism-led-currency strategy to promote RMB internationalization through inbound tourism development from trade-friendly countries,and accelerate the formulation of a mutual visa exemption policy with countries that have signed direct RMB transaction agreements,so as to prepare for promoting the recovery of inbound tourism after the epidemic as well as promoting the internationalization of RMB.