基于CHAID决策树方法探讨生育多孩的影响因素

Factors affecting the intention to have multiple children based on CHAID decision tree

目的了解常州市育龄妇女的生育现状和生育意愿水平,探索主要影响因素。方法通过配额抽样,对20~49岁常住育龄妇女使用自行设计的电子问卷进行现场调查,采用CHAID决策树方法进行多因素分析。结果回收4426份有效问卷,平均生育子女数为(1.16±0.63)个,平均理想生育子女数为(1.41±0.66)个。建立的决策树模型显示,影响育龄妇女生育意愿的主要因素为:对多孩有利于成长的看法、现有孩子数、配偶及长辈对生育多孩的态度、对生育影响身体健康和身材的焦虑等。该决策树对是、否愿意生育多孩的预测正确率分别为75.98%和84.44%,总体正确预测百分比80.77%,标准误差0.007;是、否愿意生育多孩的最优路线预测正确率分别为96.42%和90.60%。结论决策树模型可有效预测育龄妇女生育意愿。当前常州市育龄妇女的生育率和生育意愿较低,对多孩有利于成长的看法是影响生育意愿的首要关键因素。

Objective To investigate the current status and intention of childbearing among women of childbearing age in Changzhou City,and to identify the factors affecting the intention of childbearing.Methods Women of childbearing age at ages of 20 to 49 years were sampled using the quota sampling method for field investigation with a self-designed electronic questionnaire.Multivariate analysis was performed with a CHAID decision tree.Results A total of 4426 valid questionnaires were recovered,and the mean number of children was(1.16±0.63),with mean ideal number of children of(1.41±0.66).CHAID decision tree analysis showed that factors affecting the intention of childbearing among women of childbearing age included attitude towards that multiple children are favorable for growth,current number of children,spouse'and eldership's attitude towards multiple children,and anxiety of childbearing affecting health and body.This decision tree had 75.98% and 84.44% accurate rates for prediction of willingness and unwillingness to have multiple children,with an overall correct predictive proportion of 80.77% and standard error of 0.007,and this decision tree had 96.42% and 90.60% accurate rates for prediction of the optimal route of willingness and unwillingness to have multiple children.Conclusion The decision tree model is effective for predict intention of childbearing among women of childbearing age.The current proportion and intention of childbearing are low among women of childbearing age in Changzhou City than the national level,and attitude towards that multiple children are favorable for growth is the primary factor affecting intention of childbearing.