基于车辆安全配置的道路运输车辆运行安全风险评估

Evaluation on Operational Safety Risk of Road Transport Vehicles Based on Vehicle Safety Configuration

为准确高效地评估道路运输车辆的运行安全风险,针对目前基于车辆安全配置层次分析法的车辆运行安全风险评估存在着主观因素占主导和准确性不高等问题,提出了基于统计校正层次分析法的车辆技术状态安全风险评估方法。综合考虑专家经验知识和客观数据规律,通过事故统计数据修正了层次分析法中的评估权重,降低了基于层次分析法的运输车辆安全风险评估中的主观因素。采用理论研究和试验数据相结合的方法,将道路运输车辆安全配置对车辆运行安全风险的影响作为主要研究对象,通过定量评估实现了风险的可度量,提升了基于车辆安全配置的运输车辆运行安全风险评估的准确性。基于车辆本质安全理论和专家知识,结合真实车辆配置数据和事故统计数据,通过试验计算验证和对比研究,构建了基于统计校正层次分析法的道路运输车辆配置安全风险评估模型。结果表明:相比于传统的层次分析法,提出的基于统计校正层次分析法的车辆技术状态安全风险评估方法能够有效降低93.32%评估误差,能够有效提升基于车辆安全配置的道路运输车辆运行安全风险评估的准确性,能够在已知车辆安全配置的情况下快速定量获取车辆运行风险值,从而高效准确地评估道路运输车辆的运行风险。

In order to accurately and efficiently assess the operational safety risks of road transport vehicles,in view of the problems of subjective factors dominating and low accuracy in the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)for vehicle operation safety risk assessment based on vehicle safety configuration,the vehicle technical state safety risk assessment method based on SCAHP is proposed.Considering the expert experience,knowledge,and objective data patterns comprehensively,the evaluation weights in the AHP are corrected through accident statistical data,and the subjective factors in the safety risk assessment of transport vehicles are reduced based on AHP.Combining theoretical research with experimental data,taking the influence of road transport vehicles safety configuration on vehicle operational safety risks as the main research object,the quantifiable assessment of risks is achieved through quantitative assessment,the accuracy of transport vehicle operation safety risk assessment is improved based on vehicle safety configuration.Based on vehicle intrinsic safety theory and expert knowledge,combining with real vehicle configuration data and accident statistics,the safety risk assessment model based on SCAHP is constructed through experimental calculation verification and comparative study.The result shows that compared with the traditional AHP,the vehicle technical status safety risk assessment method based on SCAHP can effectively reduce the evaluation error by 93.32%,it can effectively improve the accuracy of road transport vehicle operation safety risk assessment based on the vehicle safety configuration,it can quickly and quantitatively assess and obtain vehicle operational risk values with known vehicle safety configuration,thereby it can efficiently and accurately assess the operational risks of road transport vehicles.