抚顺某石油厂区地面沉降成因分析及其预测

CAUSE ANALYSIS AND GREY THEORETICAL PREDICTION ON LAND SUBSIDENCE IN FUSHUN OIL PLANT

在研究抚顺某石油厂区地质环境条件的基础上,分析其地面沉降产生的原因,并基于厂区某地面沉降监测点连续8 a的实际监测数据建立灰色预测模型,该模型预测平均相对误差9.69%,误差较小,可以满足实际工程需要。然后据此模型对厂区未来3 a的地面沉降变形进行预测,预测结果显示该厂区地面沉降仍在持续,但年度沉降值有减小的趋势,该预测结果总体上反映了厂区地面沉降变形的变化规律和发展态势。

On the basis of studying the geological environment conditions of a oil plant in Fushun,the causes of ground subsidence are analyzed,and a grey prediction model is established based on the actual monitoring data of a certain ground subsidence monitoring point in Fushun for 8 years.The average relative error of the model is 9.69%,which is small and can meet the needs of practical engineering.Then,based on the model,the land subsidence deformation of the plant area in the next three years is predicted.The prediction results show that the land subsidence of the plant area is still continuous,but the annual settlement value tends to decrease.The prediction results generally reflect the change law and development trend of the land subsidence deformation of the plant area.